HomeCollege FootballCollege Football PredictionsMichigan Wolverines vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Picks

Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Picks for Today, 12/31/25

Updated: 4:52 AM ET Dec 31, 2025

Camping World StadiumABC

Michigan

3:00 PM ETToday

Texas

WWWWL	Last 5	WWLWW
9-3	Record	9-3
0-0-0	ATS Record	0-0-0
0-0	O/U Record	0-0

Michigan vs Texas Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

Michigan +7.5(-110)

Reasoning

Texas is being priced here as though it is should have been in the College Football Playoff — but that makes sense, the Wolverines are in a transition period from a coaching perspective. But a closer look suggests the Longhorns may be riding perception more than reality. Michigan enters this matchup as mentioned surrounded by noise: the coaching turmoil, the fallout from Sherron Moore’s firing, and the Ohio State loss. Texas meanwhile has gripes about not making the CFP.

But semantics inside, what has Texas truly done to justify laying this kind of number? Yes, the ‘Horns own top-10 wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M — but each comes with context. Oklahoma’s offense was compromised and its flaws obvious all season. John Mateer was also banged up in the Red River matchup. Texas A&M largely beat itself in Austin. And Vanderbilt? The ‘Dores nearly erased a 24-point deficit in the DKR. Meanwhile, Texas also needed overtime to escape both Mississippi State and Kentucky — 2 losing teams — and lost to a 4-win Florida side in Gainesville in addition to getting dismantled by Georgia. That résumé hardly screams “trustworthy favorite laying more than a touchdown.” Michigan still plays elite defense, controls the trenches and is a physical bunch. That profile travels — especially as an underdog. The Wolverines don’t need to win outright to be in position here; they simply need to play their brand of football. With Texas likely overpriced and Michigan undervalued, the points are a steal.

Michigan vs Texas prediction: Michigan +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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Show Bio

College football handicapper for Pickswise, specializing in college football, soccer and college basketball. Much prefer betting on the smaller/forgotten games than the big matchups, where the lines are a lot more vulnerable. PhD in Victorian Literature, putting my skills of the written word to the test with betting analysis.

Same Game Parlay

Money Line

Michigan Win

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

R. Wingo (TEX) to score a TD

Reasoning

Michigan Wolverines ML over Texas Longhorns (+250)

Given the fact that the Longhorns are going to be without a number of key players in what is essentially a meaningless game for a team that had aspirations of qualifying for the College Football Playoff, it’s worth taking a shot on Michigan to spring the upset on Wednesday. After all, Texas will be without 7 of its top 11 defenders in terms of snap count in this game, along with the excellent running back duo of Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter on offense. With that in mind, it remains to be seen if Texas will have enough firepower to win this game, especially against a pretty stout Michigan defense.

As for the Wolverines, quarterback Bryce Underwood will play on Wednesday, along with running back Justice Haynes, who is key for this offense. Additionally, Michigan will have Biff Poggi on the sidelines as the interim head coach for this matchup, and he’s a figure that the team will play hard for against a high-profile opponent. The Wolverines essentially have a full roster heading into this contest, and I’d expect them to compete until the final whistle against a Texas roster that will be extremely depleted on Wednesday.

Ryan Wingo (TEX) anytime touchdown scorer (-115)

As previously mentioned, it’s likely going to be difficult for Texas to move the ball on the ground given the fact that the Longhorns are extremely depleted at the running back spot in this one. With that in mind, it’s easy to see where Longhorns wide receiver Ryan Wingo could seriously contribute to the Longhorns’ offense on Wednesday. Wingo and Arch Manning have established a very strong rapport this season, and the wideout has the ability to find the end zone on the ground and in the receiving game as well. Wingo has racked up 7 total touchdowns this season, so let’s get behind the veteran receiver to make a splash on New Year’s Eve.

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