Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

The Arkansas Razorbacks have dropped 5 straight games amidst a head-coaching change, with former front man Bobby Petrino filling in as interim after Sam Pittman was fired, but the train is still well off the tracks. This is a less-than-ideal matchup stylistically for the Razorbacks considering Mississippi State loves to run the football — ranking 45th in rush play percentage — while Arkansas boasts the 128th ranked rush defense in FBS. Whether it be in early downs scenarios or red zone situations, this Arkansas defense is one of the worst units among Power 4 programs. 

Mississippi State has the best success rate when running the football in the country, and they are more than capable of making plays through the air behind QB Blake Shapen. The Arkansas secondary hasn’t been much better than the front seven as the Razorbacks sit 115th in EPA/dropback. Arkansas has given little-to-no reason to back them this season, while the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 against the spread in a stretch that consisted of three top-25 matchups. With all things considered, I’ll take Mississippi State to cover on the road.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas prediction: Mississippi State +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.