Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/04/25

Mississippi State has seemingly turned things around after a 2-10 campaign a year ago. Now, the Bulldogs are off to a 4-1 start with some notable results, including a win over Arizona State and a close 7-point loss on the road against Tennessee. The road ahead doesn’t get any easier as they travel to one of the most difficult places to play in the country: Kyle Field. For starters, both teams lean on the run game, which I suspect will help to chew clock.

The Bulldogs’ high-tempo offense has posted 34+ points in 3 straight games but has yet to face a defense as stout as the Aggies’ unit. Texas A&M ranks 35th in total defense, 9th in defensive success rate and 19th in EPA/rush allowed. The Bulldogs’ defense certainly has its holes, but it ranks 28th in net points per drive allowed, and should be able to contain an A&M offense that lacks the explosive down-field threat. Furthermore, I expect a ton of stalled drives in this one, as Mississippi State ranks 131st in FBS with 9.3 penalties per game while A&M ranks 134th with 9.5 penalties per game. With all things considered, I’ll take the under.

Mississippi State vs Texas A&M prediction: Under 55.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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