Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/18/25

This bowl matchup is another being framed as a “been here before vs first-timer” narrative, and that’s exactly why Missouri State is being undervalued. Arkansas State isn’t some seasoned bowl power — it is simply the team the market feels more comfortable backing. Comfort does not equal value. Missouri State enters at 7-5 and profiles as a quietly capable team that lives in competitive margins. Outside of blowout losses to USC and SMU — games that tell us nothing — the Bears were in every meaningful contest they played. They lost to Conference USA champion Kennesaw State by a touchdown, fell to Western Kentucky by 5 and won 4 games by a single possession finding ways to win. This team is battle-tested.

Arkansas State lives in the same chaos, but with less margin for error. The Red Wolves also lost 4 1-score games, but 3 of their wins came by a single point. Flip one bounce in any of those and they are watching this bowl from home. Two of these results were outright upsets in the double-digit underdog range. Basically, the Wolves were off the radar and eked out stunning upsets that could have easily gone the other way. So, why is Arkansas State favored? Because they are the mainstay FBS side and Missouri State is the new kid on the block. But that alone doesn’t justify it. We are not entirely sold that the Red Wolves should even be favored. But, hey, it gets us as the Bears at even money. Missouri State belongs here and it will prove it. State for the W.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction: Missouri State ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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