New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/22/25

The Air Force Falcons will host the New Mexico Lobos this Saturday evening. Air Force has a record of 3-7 this season, with a Mountain West conference record of 2-4. The Falcons have won two of their last four games, but they are coming off a 26-16 loss to Connecticut in their last game. Air Force ran their usual script of a run-heavy attack. They totalled 290 yards rushing on 58 attempts in their previous game. New Mexico has a record of 7-3 this season, with a Mountain West conference record of 4-2. The Lobos have won their last four games, including a 20-17 win last week against Colorado State. Quarterback Jack Layne led New Mexico with 226 yards passing and running back D.J. McKinney ran for another 52 yards and 1 touchdown. The close victory was a bit surprising, as the Lobos were double-digit favorites at home against Colorado State. 

New Mexico has played above expectations this season. They are on a sizable winning streak and are sitting near the top of the Mountain West. There are two areas I’m looking at for New Mexico to continue their winning season. First is the New Mexico defense being able to stop the Air Force running game. Air Force’s gameplan is simple, and that is to run the ball over and over until the other defense can’t stop it. Quarterback Liam Szarka will be someone to key in on. Szarka is tied for 6th in the FBS with 13 rushing touchdowns. Out of all quarterbacks, he is 2nd on that list. New Mexico’s defensive strength this year has come against the run, only allowing 105.8 yards per game. That number ranks 18th in the nation. But it won’t just be about stopping the run early. When the other team is running it over 50 times, it is important that your offense can sustain drives to give your defense a chance to rest. Air Force currently ranks 135th in defensive third down percentage, allowing opponents to convert over 50% of the time. If the Lobos can win these two areas of the game, I expect for them to find a way to win on the road.

New Mexico -3.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.