North Carolina Tar Heels vs California Golden Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 10/17/25

The North Carolina Tar Heels will travel to the west coast on Friday night to take on the California Bears in an ACC matchup. North Carolina is on a 2-game losing streak and 0-1 in conference games. Their most recent loss came against Clemson 38-10. Struggling Clemson was able to roll against the Tar Heel defense that allows on average 373.2 yards per game this season. Max Johnson was back under center as a starting quarterback for the first time since the Tar Heels opening game last season. Johnson sustained a season-ending injury last season and has been spent his last couple of games splitting time with Gio Lopez. Johnson played the whole game against Clemson, throwing for 208 yards and completing 62% of his passes. He will try to continue to improve against a California defense that ranks 57th in the FBS against the pass, allowing 207.3 passing yards per game.

California is led by freshman quarterback standout Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Sagapolutele’s performance has been up and down this season. He is coming off a poor outing against Duke where he threw 3 interceptions in a 45-21 loss. Overall, the California quarterback has thrown 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in California’s last 3 games.

North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick shut down rumors this week of him potentially leaving the program. Belichick said the rumors were false and he is here to stay in Chapel Hill to try and continue to build the program. In his first season, things have not gone well through 5 games. The Tar Heels have struggled on both sides of the ball, and they have been searching for players who can help improve this team’s performance. The key focus I have for the Tar Heels against California will be time of possession. North Carolina has struggled to sustain drives, and their defense has spent a lot of time on the field. They currently average 26:39 in time of possession in their first 5 games.

California’s inconsistencies should provide the Tar Heel’s defense with opportunities to get off the field and get the ball back in the hands of their offense. Sagapolutele’s turnovers have caused concerns on their own, but the Bears’ offense also has really struggled running the football. They rank 126th in the FBS with only 98 rushing yards per game. With a struggling quarterback and run game that can’t gain good yardage on first and second down, the Tar Heels should have multiple opportunities to stop California’s offense in 3rd and longs. If Johnson can continue to improve under center and limit turnovers, the Tar Heels should be able to keep this game close.

North Carolina vs Cal prediction: UNC +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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