North Carolina Tar Heels vs UCF Knights Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/20/25

Head coach Bill Belichick will get his second opportunity to have his new team go up against a school from the Big 12 this Saturday when the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the UCF Knights. North Carolina lost in the first week of the season 48-14 on their home field to the TCU Horned Frogs. Since then, the Tar Heels are 2-0 with wins over Charlotte and Richmond. North Carolina’s defense looks like it has settled into place, only allowing 9 total points between those two games. Meanwhile, North Carolina will be the first big school UCF has played this season, as the Knights beat Jacksonville State 17-10 and North Carolina A&T 68-7 to open the year. UCF will be excited to see how they stack up against the competition, especially after they finished last season 4-8.

It felt like a universal college football fan experience, where in Week 1, we all saw North Carolina lay an egg on national television against TCU, and we wrote off the Tar Heels. Since that game, Belichick’s squad has been able to tune up against lower-level competition. The main concern coming out of the TCU game was the missed tackling from North Carolina’s defense. They missed 19 tackles, allowing TCU to run all over them. While their last two opponents have been lower in talent, it is still promising to see North Carolina only miss two tackles across those two games.

UCF has concerns of their own going into this game. After an offseason of many roster changes, running back Myles Montgomery was supposed to be their go to playmaker on offense. Due to inconsistencies on the offensive line, Montgomery has only rushed for 114 yards on 29 attempts with zero touchdowns against two opponents outside the Power Four. If North Carolina’s defense can fill the running holes Saturday and show their tackling has improved, I think this game is a toss up.

North Carolina vs Central Florida prediction: North Carolina +7  (-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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