North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/27/25

The New Mexico Bowl will feature the 11-2 North Texas Mean Green from the American Conference and the 9-3 San Diego State Aztecs from the Mountain West Conference. North Texas finished the season as the 25th-ranked team in the nation, and would have likely gotten into the College Football playoff if they could have beaten Tulane in the American Conference championship game. Freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker finished the season with 4129 yards passing and 31 touchdowns. He was college football’s top ranked passer in passing yards this season. His top receiver was Wyatt Young who finished the season with 1209 yards and 10 touchdowns. San Diego State finished their season winning two of their last three games. Quarterback Jayden Denegal led the Aztecs in passing with 1807 yards and 9 touchdowns. Running back Lucky Sutton had a great year on the ground, totaling 1237 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

The key for this game will be North Texas’s explosive offense versus San Diego’s staunch defense. As of Thursday morning, despite announcing for the transfer portal, Mestemaker is still set to suit up for Saturday’s game. He will have the opportunity to cap off a great season for the Mean Green, and help end their season on a high note after losing in the American Conference Championship game. With Mestemaker under center, North Texas ranks first in the FBS on offense with 44.8 points per game and 504 yards per game. San Diego ranks fifth in the country with only 12.6 points allowed per game. They also defend the pass well with only 157 passing yards allowed per game. On the other side of the ball, San Diego State will be without starting quarterback, Denegal, in this game. He will end his season early to receive surgery to recover from his injury before next season. Both teams had great seasons, but I’m leaning towards North Texas. After losing their conference championship, their ‘why’ feels slightly stronger heading into this matchup. Before Mestemaker moves to a bigger program next season, I think he helps North Texas win one last game.

North Texas -5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.