North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/27/25

The New Mexico Bowl will feature the 11-2 North Texas Mean Green from the American Conference and the 9-3 San Diego State Aztecs from the Mountain West Conference. North Texas finished the season as the 25th-ranked team in the nation and would have likely gotten into the College Football Playoff had they beaten Tulane in the American Conference Championship. Freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker finished the season with 4,129 yards passing and 31 touchdowns, leading the country in passing yards. His top receiver was Wyatt Young, who finished the season with 1,209 yards and 10 touchdowns.

San Diego State finished its season winning 2 of its 3 three games. Quarterback Jayden Denegal led the Aztecs in passing with 1,807 yards and 9 touchdowns. Running back Lucky Sutton had a great year on the ground, totaling 1237 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

The key for this game will be North Texas’s explosive offense against San Diego’s staunch defense. As of Thursday morning, despite announcing for the transfer portal, Mestemaker is still set to suit up for Saturday’s game. With Mestemaker under center, North Texas ranks 1st in the FBS offensively with 44.8 points and 504 yards per game. San Diego ranks 5th in the country with only 12.6 points allowed per game. The Aztecs also defend the pass well, allowing only 157 passing yards per game.

On the other side of the ball, San Diego State will be without starting quarterback Denegal for this contest. He will end his season early to receive surgery to recover from his injury before next season. Both teams had great seasons, but I’m leaning towards North Texas. After losing their conference championship, their ‘why’ feels slightly stronger heading into this matchup, and the Mean Green should have a decent quarterback advantage. 

North Texas vs San Diego State prediction: North Texas Mean Green -5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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