North Texas Mean Green vs Tulane Green Wave Prediction, Odds and AAC Championship Picks for Today, 12/05/25

North Texas Mean Green -2.5 over Tulane Green Wave (-110)

If you read my early-week preview for the upcoming conference championship weekend, then you know where I stand on the side in this matchup. My handicap is relatively simple here. Because these defenses are similarly mediocre, I’d prefer to side with the more reliable offense – and that is North Texas by a decent margin.  The Mean Green have been absolutely electric offensively this year. They are 2nd nationally in PPA per play – just behind Vanderbilt – and they sit 4th nationally in success rate only behind Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Ohio State.

As the top scoring offense with top-5 explosivity, the Mean Green can score from anywhere on the field, and they’ve been nails on their quality drives and red-zone appearances. In fact, North Texas is 2nd in the nation in quality drives sans garbage time and is the best team in the land in points per quality drive at 5.2. The Mean Green have even improved that mark of late, as they are just short of 6 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line over the last 5 weeks. Not to mention, they lead the country in red-zone trips and red-zone touchdown rate (56/70), having failed to score any points in just 4 of those 70 trips inside the opposing 20, and are top-5 in turnover margin.

Don’t get me wrong, Tulane’s offense has been above average, but North Texas as the offensive line advantage and the quarterback advantage with Drew Mestemaker – who has almost double the amount of big-time throws and half the turnover-worthy plays as Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff. Given the stark advantage when it comes to ATS results and the perceivably more reliable and less turnover-prone offense, UNT is my pick to win and cover – punching its ticket to the CFP.

Wyatt Young (UNT) 100+ Receiving Yards (-130)

This line has inched up all week, and for good reason. Wyatt Young has been one of the best receivers in the country this year. He has the best PFF receiving grade in the country among qualified wide receivers and has insane production with less usage than those around him in the rankings. For reference, Young averages almost 20 yards per reception and is 3rd nationally in receiving yards despite having 40 and 26 fewer receptions, respectively, than the only 2 receivers with more yards than him.

Moreover, he’s demanded at least 7 and as many as 12 targets in 6 of his last 7 games, accumulating at least 102 yards in 5 of them – all from Week 8 on. I don’t expect any of this to change in this game against Tulane, as the Green Wave defense is weakest in the secondary. In fact, Tulane is 119th in passing yards allowed per game, as well as outside the top 115 in passing downs PPA and PPA per pass allowed since Week 10. 

Instead of chasing inflated lines as the week progresses, I’ve settled on the alternate receiving yards prop of 100+ for the 2nd leg of our North Texas vs Tulane Same Game Parlay. 

Jake Retzlaff (TUL) Anytime TD (-290)

Retzlaff carries turnover potential whenever he drops back to pass. However, as the team leader in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, he is an integral piece of Tulane’s ground game. In fact, his 14 ground touchdowns are tied for 5th nationally among non-running backs this season. 

The matchup for Retzlaff as a runner is fairly good considering North Texas has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this year. The Mean Green have surrendered a rushing touchdown to FBS opponents more often than not, so Retzlaff is in good position to find the end zone as a runner in what figures to be a high-scoring affair in Friday’s AAC Championship.