Ole Miss Rebels vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/06/25

The SEC schedule gets underway this weekend when the Ole Miss Rebels visit the Kentucky Wildcats. You may recall that Kentucky pulled off an epic upset of the Rebels last season, and it was the primary reason Ole Miss missed out on the playoffs. Folks in Lexington are expecting Lane Kiffin to be out for revenge this time around. The Rebels opened their season with a dominant win over Georgia State, and the offense looked like it won’t miss a beat without Jaxson Dart. The Wildcats, on the other hand, slogged their way to a 24-16 win over Toledo, making it clear that their preferred path is defense and ball-control offense. Ultimately though, this Kentucky team should be near the bottom of the SEC, and I don’t see how in the world they would keep this game close. My Ole Miss vs Kentucky prediction is Ole Miss -10, and I would probably take just about any number you want to give me. This should be a blowout.

The Rebels are a roster full of transfers, as is Kiffin’s standard path these days, which always leaves some question marks and unpredictability, particularly when replacing one of the most talent-laden rosters in the country last season. But they are good where it counts—they have one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country, and redshirt sophomore Austin Simmons threw for 341 yards and 3 scores in the opener (and 2 interceptions, just fyi). Simmons also looked up to the task in limited action last season. What about the Wildcats? Well, in the opener, their wide receivers had a total of 4 catches for 12 yards, and again, that was against Toledo. They ran the ball 42 times and threw it just 23, and QB Zach Calzada finished with a paltry 85 yards in the air. Kentucky will try to slow this game down to a crawl, but I don’t think they can do it. Ole Miss has too much firepower, and at some point, the Rebs are scoring, and I don’t see how Kentucky keeps pace.

Ole Miss vs Kentucky Prediction: Ole Miss -10 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

The game total for this game is tricky because we have two very different styles of play. The Ole Miss Rebels will want to play fast, run a lot of plays, pick up yardage in huge chunks, and score as often as possible. The Kentucky Wildcats, on the other hand, want to grind this game out on the ground, relying on their defense and field position to shorten this game as much as they can. If the Rebels get their way and get out ahead early, Kentucky will have to try to keep pace, and we will blow past this total. If Kentucky gets its way and slows this game down, this game could stay way under. While I think the Rebels will win this game in a blowout, I see more possible paths for this game to stay under the total, and so my play here is under 50.5.

How do we stay under? More than anything else, I have no faith in the Kentucky offense. They could very well get shut out here, and their team total is set at just 20.5 points, which might be generous in conference play. If Kentucky does not help this total much, we would need the game to be way more lopsided than the projected spread of 10 points to threaten the over. It is also possible that Kentucky actually can shorten this game, and we end up in a 28-17 sort of situation, where Ole Miss is comfortably in control. To go over, we probably need both teams scoring, and while that is possible, it seems like the less likely outcome. I am mostly staying away from the total though, because I love the spread line in this spot.

Ole Miss vs Kentucky Prediction: Under 50.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.