Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/25/25

The Ole Miss Rebels are one blown fourth-quarter lead on the road in Athens away from an undefeated record entering Saturday’s matchup on the road against No. 13 Oklahoma. The styles and schemes of both squads calls for an interesting game script, as Ole Miss boast one of the most electric, explosive offenses in the country, while the Sooners have arguably been the best defensive unit — allowing only 9.4 points per game. While Brent Venables’ squad is built on a defensive identity, it has yet to face an offense to the caliber of Ole Miss. The Rebels hold the top spot in FBS in quality drive rate, ranking top-12 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback. Furthermore, they are in the top 10 in net points per drive.

Georgia boasts an elite defense as well, but the Rebels posted 35 points in 3 quarters in that matchup. The Oklahoma offense is hard to rely on with QB John Mateer being rushed back from a broken bone in his throwing hand, ranking 72nd in net points per drive with only 3 TDs across the last two weeks. The Sooners run game hasn’t been all that great, and the Ole Miss defense specializes in stopping the pass, ranking 15th in EPA/dropback. If Ole Miss is able to start strong and get a lead out of the gates, things will open up for the Rebels’ offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off the upset. With that being said, however, I’ll take the spread and back Ole Miss to keep this one close.

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma prediction: Ole Miss Rebels +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The styles and schemes of both Ole Miss and Oklahoma calls for an interesting game script, as the Rebels boast one of the most electric, explosive offenses in the country while the Sooners have arguably been the best defensive unit in the country allowing only 9.4 points per game. With that being said, the Sooners have yet to face an offense like Ole Miss boasts. The Rebels rank top-12 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback while holding the top spot in FBS in terms of quality drive rate. The Sooners rank 1st in FBS in yards per game allowed and tackles for loss, but I expect Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss’ dual-threat and big-play ability to open things up for the Rebels offense. 

On the contrary, the Ole Miss defense hasn’t exactly been a world-beaters this season, ranking 91st in defensive efficiency. Throughout the weird spell of QB John Mateer’s rushed injury recovery from a broken bone on his throwing hand, the run game stepped up last week against South Carolina with 170 combined yards on the ground. In a matchup that holds significant playoff implications, I expect both squads to pull out all the stops in what could likely turn into a back-and-forth shootout. At the time of writing, the over/under has moved from 51.5 to 54.5 despite only roughly 60% of public bets siding with the over. With that being said, I’ll follow the line movement and take the over in this spot.

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma prediction: Over 54.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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