Oregon Ducks

Oregon Ducks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds and Capital One Orange Bowl Picks for Today, 01/01/26

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oregon vs Texas Tech Pickswise Expert Predictions

Money Line Pick
Oregon Win(-135)

The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks made quick work of James Madison to advance to this round, while the 4th-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders had a bye in the opening round following a 12-1 season and a routine victory in the Big 12 title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Given that this is the shortest spread on the board for the CFP quarterfinal round, this has the feeling of a game that should come down to the wire. Therefore, it’s hard to find a ton of clear advantages for either side in Thursday’s game. However, Oregon has a few edges that it should be able to exploit in this matchup. For starters, the Ducks have the better quarterback in the game, and Dante Moore should also be getting back 2 of his top 3 wide receivers in Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. for this matchup. The jury is still out on if Evan Stewart is going to suit up on Thursday, but considering that Stewart hasn’t played for the entire season to this point, his absence isn’t anything new for Will Stein’s offense. With Moore and Bryant Jr. joining the dynamic and explosive Malik Benson in the lineup, this gives the Ducks a formidable trio of targets on the outside, to go along with All-American tight end Kenyon Sadiq at the tight end spot. Oregon is expected to have its top 3 running backs available for this matchup as well, so it’s hard not to be confident in the Ducks’ ability to manufacture offense in this one, even against an excellent Red Raiders defense. 

While Joey McGuire’s defense has been one of the top 5 units in the sport this season, Texas Tech’s issue in this game could be its offense. The Red Raiders certainly have a good offense — albeit one that has been the beneficiary of a somewhat weak schedule of opposing defenses — but there have been clear limitations for this group both on the ground and inside the red zone this season. After all, Texas Tech is just 50th in rushing success rate and 28th in points per drive on offense. In a game that is projected to be close throughout, just one or two failed red zone trips could decide the outcome. With that in mind, I can only side with Oregon to knock off the Red Raiders and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Oregon ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 52.5(-110)

While both offenses certainly have the capability to put up points in a game that should be played in relatively favorable weather conditions on Thursday, I’m projecting that scoring should be tougher than most would expect in this matchup. For starters, both teams are anchored by their stout defenses, as each unit ranks inside the top 15 nationally in success rate and points per drive allowed on the season. It’s also worth mentioning that each defense has been able to step up in their biggest games of the season to this point, and there’s no real reason to shy away from that trend in this one.

As previously mentioned, it’s hard for any offense to move the ball on this elite Texas Tech defense, as the Red Raiders are 1st in the nation in opponent EPA per play and tops in the country in both Early Downs EPA and quality drive rate allowed. On the other side, I can imagine that some will point to Oregon’s lackluster performance in the 4th quarter against James Madison as a sign of what a better offense could do to the Ducks defense, but it’s important to remember that most of the players on the field in that fourth quarter were backups in a game that was already well out of hand early in the second half. Both defenses should be locked in for a game where red zone success rate could prove to be the difference. I’ll grab the under while it’s still above a key number.

Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Top Trends
Point Spread

Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog.

Money Line

Texas Tech has won 9 straight home games.

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