Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/15/25

In case you missed it, Penn State suffered one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the season last week. As a 13.5-point underdog, the Nittany Lions nearly shocked the college football world by taking undefeated No. 2 Indiana to the brink in Happy Valley—until a dramatic final drive ended in one of the best catches you’ll ever see. Omar Cooper’s highlight-reel grab sealed a 27–24 Hoosiers win, and with it, broke Penn State’s heart. Losses like that leave a mark. To rebound from such an emotional gut punch is hard enough; to then go on the road and lay points immediately afterward is even tougher. And that’s exactly what the Nittany Lions are being asked to do here.

Enter Michigan State. This is the Battle for the Land Grant Trophy—the historic arch rivalry of both PSU and Sparty. Both teams sit at 3–6, but the circumstances couldn’t be more different. Penn State just had its heart ripped out. Michigan State, meanwhile, is at home, motivated, and staring at the perfect opportunity to catch its rival in a vulnerable spot. Recent history paints an ugly picture. The Spartans have lost the last two meetings by a combined score of 87–16, and that’s exactly why this line looks the way it does. The market expects more of the same. But this time around, the setup is different. Penn State is wounded, both emotionally and physically, and the Spartans know it. For Michigan State, this is the season. It’s a shot at redemption, a chance to salvage pride, and an opportunity to turn the tide in this series. Motivation will be high, and with a touchdown cushion at home against a fragile opponent, that’s more than enough to make Sparty live here.

Penn State vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State +7 (-110), available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.