San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/28/25

The New Mexico Lobos are riding a 5-game win streak sitting in 2nd place in the Mountain West standings, one spot behind the San Diego State Aztecs. The motivation factor is certainly there for both squads entering this one, but the clash of styles calls for an interesting matchup. San Diego State likes slow-paced, low-scoring dog fights leaning on the defense while New Mexico has had success with an efficient passing game. The Lobos rank top-40 in passing efficiency, EPA/dropback and net points per drive on offense.

While the Aztecs’ defense has been superb this season, the offense doesn’t have the firepower to match the Lobos big-play potential. The San Diego State offense ranks 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive with a turnover-prone quarterback under center. With home field advantage, I expect the Lobos to be fired up for the matchup that could land them in the Mountain West Championship game; I’ll take New Mexico to win outright.

San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction: New Mexico Lobos ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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