SMU Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/20/25

The final chapter of the Battle for the Iron Skillet takes place on Saturday afternoon from Amon G. Carter Stadium on the campus of TCU. The rivalry between the Mustangs and the Horned Frogs is a storied one, dating back to 1915, but this will be the last time they meet on the gridiron for the foreseeable future due to conference realignment and changes in scheduling. SMU has taken three of the last five meetings, but TCU has controlled this series since the mid-1990s. The Horned Frogs are also in a revenge spot here, as the Mustangs took advantage of 5 TCU turnovers and 14 TCU penalties in a 66-42 win at SMU last year. 

The Mustangs benefitted from 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns in the win against the Horned Frogs last year, not to mention SMU running back Brashard Smith’s 127 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 carries. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, Smith is now with the Kansas City Chiefs, and the defense lost most of its starters from a season ago. Given the roster change, I have a tough time seeing the Mustangs replicating that defensive performance on the road against a TCU team that is 7th nationally in turnover margin through 3 weeks. In fact, the penalty misfortunes in this matchup may now rest with the Mustangs, who are currently 125th in penalties per FBS game.

While the travel is minimal from SMU to TCU, this will be the second straight true road game for the Mustangs, and the atmosphere in a sold-out Amon G. Carter Stadium will be the most hostile SMU has seen this season. That’s not exactly reassuring for the Mustang offense, led by a quarterback in Keving Jennings who already has 8 turnover-worthy plays in 3 games – 2 of which came against an FCS opponent. Even with a great offensive line in front of him, I struggle to trust him in a road setting, especially against a TCU defense that has succeeded in generating havoc thus far.

TCU’s offense is going to be difficult to keep up with if SMU can’t protect the ball. For reference, the Horned Frogs are 6th nationally in PPA per play and 5th in yards per play, in addition to being much better than the Musangs at finishing drives with points. Give me the Horned Frogs to win and cover at home.

SMU vs TCU prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-120).

You can bet on our SMU vs TCU pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!