South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/27/25

The North Texas Mean Green are off to a 4-0 start behind the No. 9 ranked scoring offense in the country, averaging 47.0 points per game. They’ll face a South Alabama squad coming off an 18-point loss as 14.5-point favorites at home against Coastal Carolina. While it hasn’t faced any stout defensive competition thus far, the UNT offense is a force to be reckoned with this season. The Mean Green rank 8th in offensive efficiency, 18th in offensive EPA and 10th in net points per drive. The South Alabama defense has had its fair share of struggles through the first third of the season, ranking 122nd in rushing defense and 117th in net points per drive defensively. 

I expect North Texas to have no problem moving the ball in this one, and when the get in scoring positions, the Jaguars have struggled to stall drives. South Alabama is tied for dead last in FBS in red zone defense, allowing a score in all 15 opponent red zone attempts including 12 TDs. The Jaguars simple don’t have the firepower to keep up with the UNT offense, and they’ve shot themselves in the foot plenty of times in desperate situations, ranking 122nd nationally in turnovers lost. With all things considered, I’ll take North Texas to win comfortably at home and cover the double-digit spread.

South Alabama vs North Texas prediction: UNT -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -13.5.