TCU Horned Frogs vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 09/26/25

We have Friday night Big 12 action this week as the TCU Horned Frogs face the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Frogs are 3-0 on the season and just beat Metroplex rival SMU last weekend. Arizona State is 3-1, with a loss at Mississippi State. They got a win on the road at Baylor on Saturday with a walk-off field goal. Let’s talk big picture here: I think TCU is the far better football team, and they are a real contender in the Big 12 this year. Arizona State? I think their magic will run out, and just watching them a couple times this year makes me think this team is a bit of a pretender. They will play a lot of close games, and whereas every break seemed to go their way last year, I doubt that happens twice. I actually like TCU to win this game outright, but the price difference is minor, so we might as well take the points. Give me TCU +2.5.

TCU has an elite offense once again. Josh Hoover is a veteran QB who will sit atop the passing charts all season. They can score on anybody. Arizona State needed 3 turnovers to survive the Baylor Bears last week, and that might have been as much Baylor’s sloppiness as the Sun Devils’ prowess. I doubt they turn Hoover over that many times. On the other side, this ASU offense definitely misses Cam Skattabo. Most of the offense is Sam Leavitt forcing the ball to Jordyn Tyson. I don’t think it will take an elite defense to slow them down most weeks. I look for TCU to score in bunches, while ASU struggles a bit more. This one might end up being close because that’s just how these Friday night games go, but I like TCU here. They are the better team, notwithstanding the difficult road environment, and remember, Vegas really wants you to take the home team by a field goal here.

TCU vs Arizona State Prediction: TCU +2.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The chances of this game being a shootout are way better than the chances of this game being a defensive struggle. Whenever TCU is involved, you can expect lots of points, because this team will push the pace and push the ball down the field. They are hard to defend, and they just posted over 500 yards against SMU last week. They boast one of the most potent passing attacks in the country, and TCU cresting 30 points on any given week is an easy lock-and-load play for me.

The TCU defense has some questions. To my judgement, they have availed themselves nicely so far, but they did come into the season with some serious defensive uncertainties. In particular, this team struggled to stop the run last year. The Sun Devils could find some success on the ground, which would take pressure off the passing attack. But even still, Jordyn Tyson is as close to uncoverable as anyone in the country, so I think the Sun Devils will get their points too. Somebody should get to 30 in this game, and that should take us over the total.

TCU vs Arizona State Prediction: Over 55.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.