Tennessee Volunteers vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/22/25

Everything about this matchup points to Florida being live. When a ranked Tennessee team travels into a hostile environment and is still only laying a short line to a 3–7 opponent, that tells you the market isn’t buying the Vols. And they shouldn’t. Tennessee has been wildly inconsistent and has repeatedly shown defensive vulnerability, giving up 33 to Oklahoma, 34 to Kentucky, 37 to Alabama, 31 to Arkansas, and 34 to Mississippi State. That kind of performance profile is the exact opposite of what you want when you’re laying road chalk.

Florida, meanwhile, has had a disappointing season in the standings, but they’ve been a different animal at home. The Gators already beat Texas in Gainesville, sit at 3–1 in the Swamp, and easily could be 4–0 if not for letting the USF game slip away late. At home, this is a tough, physical defense with a pass rush that can create chaos. They’ve also won seven of the last ten vs. Tennessee, and rivalry familiarity matters in a matchup where motivation tilts heavily toward the underdog: this is Florida’s de facto bowl game. A loss eliminates them from bowl contention entirely; a win keeps hope alive. Tennessee has nothing truly tangible on the line — no playoff path, no major stakes — and when a ranked team goes on the road in that kind of scenario, lack of urgency becomes a real factor. If the Vols start slow or let Florida dictate the tempo early, they are absolutely vulnerable to an upset. We’re backing UF to pull it off.

Tennessee vs Florida prediction: Florida +165 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.