Tennessee Volunteers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 12/30/25

Bowl games often come down to one simple question: who actually wants to be there? And in this matchup, that question hangs squarely over Tennessee. The Volunteers entered the season with playoff aspirations after last year’s run, but those hopes were extinguished in November with a damaging home loss to Oklahoma. Since then, Tennessee’s resume has been padded with wins over New Mexico State and a Florida team that is in complete turmoil. The season ended on a sour note as well, with the Vols losing at home to Vanderbilt — a game where effort and urgency clearly favored the underdog. A spot that Vandy made the most of while Tennessee was left with even more question marks.

Illinois, meanwhile, views this game very differently. Despite sitting inside the Top Ten in the early going of the regular season, the Illini were never built for a Big Ten title run this season. That much was proven when one draws Indiana, Ohio State, and a road trip to Washington on the schedule and looked non-competitve in none of those contests. Still, Illinois has shown that they can compete physically and punch above their weight in the right spot. A bowl matchup against a brand-name SEC opponent that may already be thinking about 2026 is exactly the kind of opportunity for that to happen. Illinois plays a style of football that can neutralize Tennessee’s biggest strength – their offense. By controlling the line of scrimmage, shortening the game, and keeping possessions limited, the Illini can keep the Vols’ explosive offense on the sideline. That is also key against a Tennessee defense allowing nearly 29 points per game. The Illini may not only be able to mitigate the Volunteers’ offense but can also build a lead to cut their defensive line loose which loves to get into the backfield and disrupt things. With Illinois priced inside a field goal as an underdog, the number suggests this game is a tenable assignment for Illinois. If motivation matters — and in bowl season it always does — the Illini hold those cards too. Illinois outright.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Illinois +115 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.