Texas State Bobcats vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

The Arkansas State Red Wolves rank 93rd in total defense and 125th in total defense, and their underlying numbers are even worse. Arkansas State has struggled to move the ball, and even when it finds a big gain here and there, it ranks 120th in points per quality drive and 121st in offensive success rate. The Texas State defense isn’t fantastic, but it’s hard to have faith in an Arkansas State offense that managed 0 touchdowns and only 12 rushing yards against Louisiana Monroe a week ago.

Texas State has a high-octane offense, but a high-octane offense that prefers the run. The Bobcats rank 26th in rush play percentage and 12th in EPA/rush. I expect Texas State to build a lead in this one and turn to the run game almost entirely in the second half to chew the clock similarly to how G.J. Kinne’s squad did last week against Nicholls with 19 second-half rushes compared to 10 pass attempts to chew the clock. With all things considered, I’ll take the under.

Texas State vs Arkansas State prediction: Under 64.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 63.5.