HomeCollege FootballCollege Football PredictionsTroy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes Prediction, Odds and Sun Belt Championship Picks

Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes Prediction, Odds and Sun Belt Championship Picks for Today, 12/05/25

Updated: 12:48 PM ET Dec 05, 2025

Bridgeforth StadiumESPN

Troy

7:00 PM ETToday

James Madison

WLLWW	Last 5	WWWWW
8-4	Record	11-1
0-0-0	ATS Record	0-0-0
0-0	O/U Record	0-0

Troy vs James Madison Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

James Madison -23.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Sun Belt championship will be decided this Friday when the Troy Trojans take on the James Madison Dukes. Troy finished its season with a record of 8-4 and a conference record of 6-2. The Trojans finished in first place in the Sun Belt West after a 28-18 win over Southern Mississippi during the last week of the season. Quarterback Goose Crowder threw for 285 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in the victory.

Meanwhile, James Madison finished its season 11-1 with a conference record of 8-0. The Dukes won the Sun Belt East, finishing their season with 10 straight wins. Their final win of the season was a 59-10 beat down against Coastal Carolina. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III threw for 207 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in the win. The Dukes’ only loss this season came back in the beginning of September at Louisville at a score of 28-14. James Madison is ranked as the 25th-best team in the country heading into this weekend, and still has a small chance to make the College Football Playoff. However, the Dukes are going to require some help and a dominant win this weekend.

The conference championship game is set to be played at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA, and the forecast call for a cold one. The weather is projected to be 30 degrees around kickoff and will only get colder the longer into the night this game goes. I don’t expect the cold to bother the Dukes in this game. Barnett is a veteran quarterback in this program, as the junior has thrown for more than 5,000 yards in his career. If conditions are not the best for throwing the football this weekend, Barnett will be able to rely on his legs (as evidenced by his 459 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season). Also paired with Barnett is running back Wayne Knight. Knight was able to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing this season, and he has totaled 8 touchdowns.

Troy’s rushing game has been significantly less effective this season than James Madison. This team is not built for the poor conditions, with their head coach, Gerad Parker, stating that the team doesn’t even have gear for colder weather. While I do know this was obvious sarcasm, Troy is coming into this game off a short week to play against a high-powered offense in cold weather conditions. Look for JMU to make a statement in an attempt to claim its spot in the CFP.

Sun Belt Championship prediction: James Madison Dukes -23 over Troy Trojans (-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

James Madison -23.5

Player Receptions

R. Thomas (TROY) - 3+ recs

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

W. Knight (JMU) to score a TD

Reasoning

James Madison Dukes -23.5 over Troy Trojans (-110)

James Madison finished its season with 10 straight victories and is clearly the best team in this conference. After rolling to a 49-point victory over Coastal Carolina a week ago, the Dukes are massive favorites at home against a Troy team that is probably punching above its weight at this point in the season.

James Madison should have clear advantages on both sides of the ball in this game, and Troy’s already middling offense can’t be expected to score against an excellent Dukes defense that leads the nation in success rate allowed, to go along with top-10 marks in EPA per play and points per drive allowed. On the other side, James Madison’s offense has been rolling since turning to Alonza Barnett III at quarterback from a full-time perspective, so let’s roll with the Dukes to win by a huge margin at home.

RaRa Thomas (TROY) 3+ receptions (-114)

While I don’t foresee Troy scoring all that much in this game — especially with the weather forecast projecting very cold and potentially windy temperatures — there should be opportunities for the Trojans to make some hay in the passing game, potentially in garbage time if things get out of hand. That’s where RaRa Thomas comes in, as the veteran wide receiver should be able to get some separation against this James Madison secondary. Thomas has racked up at least 3 receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and if Troy is in a game script in which it needs to throw the ball consistently, there should be plenty of targets to spare for the Trojans wideout.

Wayne Knight (JMU) anytime TD (-290)

To close out our Sun Belt title game SGP, let’s back James Madison running back Wayne Knight to find the end zone for yet another game. Knight has proven himself to be the most dynamic athlete on this team, and he’s been able to be the bellcow for a Dukes offense that is absolutely rolling of late. The veteran running back has picked up touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games while also racking up 9 total touchdowns on the season. Knight should be in line for the most carries on the team, which makes him an easy candidate to get the ball around the goal line on Friday.

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SGP

7:00 PM ETToday

Troy vs James Madison Sun Belt Championship Same Game Parlay

Parlay Pick

7:00 PM ETToday

Friday’s CFB Championship parlay

Top Trends

Game Totals

The Over is 4-1 in James Madison's last 5 games.

Point Spread

James Madison is 8-4 against the spread this season.

Money Line

James Madison has won 18 of its last 19 home matchups against teams with worse records.

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