UCF Knights vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

The Baylor Bears are 0-5 against the spread in their last five conference matchups entering Saturday’s meeting with the UCF Knights. While the spread has seen some interesting line movement in the Knights’ favor, I’ve got my eye on the total in this one. While the UCF offense has been inconsistent all season, the defense  has posted some quality performances and has some intriguing underlying numbers.

The Knights rank top-25 in defensive success rate and have particularly had success limiting the passing game, something Baylor has leaned on heavily behind QB Sawyer Robertson this season. While Baylor’s defense hasn’t had much to write home about this season, the Knights have struggled with finishing drives this year, ranking 121st in points per quality drive. These offenses are certainly capable of putting up points, but I’m taking the under on what I believe is a high line for this matchup.

UCF vs Baylor prediction: Under 59.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -115.