UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/11/25

The UCF Knights are coming off back-to-back conference losses, while Cincinnati has established themselves as a dark horse contender in the Big 12 after defeating Kansas on the road and Iowa State at home in recent weeks. While both of the Bearcats’ recent matchups have hit the over in high-scoring affairs, UCF doesn’t possess the same explosiveness on offense as Cincinnati’s recent foes. UCF has found the end zone mostly through the run game, but the efficiency isn’t there; the Knights rank 91st in EPA/rush and 95th in rushing success rate. 

Cincinnati’s defense has been solid against the run, ranking 41st in total rushing defense. Speaking of the run game, Bearcats QB Brendan Sorsby can make plays through the air with a 12:1 TD:INT ratio, but Cincinnati typically leans on the run game and ranks 8th in rushing success rate. With a double-digit spread, I expect Cincinnati to build a lead and lean on the run game, helping chew the clock. With all things considered, I’ll take the under.

UCF vs Cincinnati prediction: Under 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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