UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/18/25

One of the key matchups in the Mountain West is this weekend’s battle between the UNLV Rebels and the Boise State Broncos. These teams sit atop the conference standings at 2-0, and the Rebels are a surprising 6-0 on the season. Of course, they also have to listen to the “you haven’t played anybody” arguments, because, well, they haven’t played anybody. A win over a then-lowly UCLA team is their high point, so Boise will be their first true measuring stick. As for the Broncos, they already have 2 losses—South Florida and Notre Dame—but they have covered 5 straight games against the spread. This is a suspicious line, as if Vegas is daring all the local bettors to take the points with the undefeated Rebels, but I think this is a Boise State spot. Give me Boise St -12.

The problem for the Rebels is defense. They rank 117^th against the pass and 122^nd against the run (out of 134 teams). Those rankings are based on total yards allowed, and they are not adjusted for strength of competition. I will remind you that they haven’t played anybody good yet, and they are still near the bottom of every defensive ranking. There is little doubt that Boise is going to hang 40 or 50 points on UNLV. For the Rebs to cover this number, or have any hope of winning, they will have to score and keep up. This is a decent offense, to be sure, but I think this Boise State defense is better than people might expect, and the softer conference competition is going to cause that to come out. I think Boise can win this game at home by 2 touchdowns.

UNLV vs Boise State Prediction: Boise State Broncos -12 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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