UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Odds and Mountain West Championship Picks for Today, 12/05/25

When people hear the name Boise State, especially in mid-major football, there’s an automatic assumption that the Broncos will thrive in championship settings. They have earned that reputation over decades, and because of it the market routinely prices Boise with an inflated premium. That’s exactly what we’re seeing here. UNLV enters the Mountain West Championship as the side everyone insists “shouldn’t be here” because of how chaotic the 4-way tiebreaker scenario was. Add in the Rebels’ close calls this season — they barely survived Air Force, Miami (OH), Utah State and even Idaho State — and the public instinctively leans toward Boise State.

But the number tells a different story. Boise State beat UNLV by 25 earlier this season as a 13-point favorite. Now, on a neutral field with a championship on the line, the line is shorter and the Rebels are only small underdogs. That signals respect for UNLV and hints that oddsmakers anticipate a different type of fight this time around. UNLV’s offense gives them a live-dog profile, and Boise State hasn’t consistently validated the premium attached to their name this year. Forget the points — I’ll take UNLV straight up.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: UNLV ML (+145) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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