College Football Picks

Part of this week’s MACtion takes us to Kent State where the Golden Flashes will host the Central Michigan Chippewas. The visiting Chipps are very much in the hunt for the MAC title game, sitting at 4-2 in the conference standings in a logjam of 5 teams. Oddly enough, Kent State is only a game back in the standings after upending Akron last week. Kent State, as a reminder, did not win a game last year, fired their coach in April, and was fully expected to finish last in the conference again this year. Yet the Golden Flashes have found a lot of success. I’ll admit, they have beaten me more than once in these MACtion games, but I just don’t see how they are successful, and this one seems like a bad matchup for Kent State. Give me Central Michigan -9.5.

Central Michigan is a run-first offensive scheme. They are very effective on the ground, and Kent State is outside the top 100 in terms of rushing defense. The Chipps ought to be able to run the ball at will in this spot. Also, it is going to be cold on Wednesday, probably in the upper 30s most of the game. In that kind of weather, you want to be the team that can run effectively. As far as Kent State goes, just a reminder that they rank 131 (out of 134) in the nation in terms of total offense, and I don’t see how this team ever scores. Understanding that midweek MACtion games are just plain weird sometimes, the Chipps ought to be able to control this game on the ground against a bad rush defense, and that should set them up nicely to win by 2 scores.

Central Michigan vs Kent State prediction: CMU -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Midweek MACtion rolls right along on Wednesday of Week 13. With just 1 team at 5-1 in conference and 5 teams at 4-2, the MAC race feels wide open. Wednesday’s matchup between the Miami RedHawks and the Buffalo Bulls will go a long way to decide who plays for a MAC title given both teams are among the gaggle of 4-2 teams. However, that somehow may not even be the biggest headline coming into this game, as Miami QB Dequan Finn decided to leave the program in the middle of a conference title race. Points may be hard to come by in this matchup, especially for the RedHawks. Taking over for Finn will be Henry Hesson, who simply hasn’t proven to be much of an asset at the quarterback position in his limited time under center. He was given the start last week against Finn’s former team and proceeded to complete just 28.9% of his passes for 147 yards, 0 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 4 turnover-worthy plays. Prior to that, he completed just 44.4% of his 18 pass attempts against UNLV, though he was able to have some success against FCS Lindenwood.

Without much of a passing attack, Miami figures to be fairly one-dimensional offensively. The RedHawks will likely keep the ball on the ground for a majority of the game, which plays right into the strength of Buffalo’s defense. The Bulls yield fewer than 3.5 yards per attempt this season and rank 8th in PPA per rush outside of garbage time since Week 8. They also rank top-25 in standard downs PPA and 10th in points per quality drive allowed in that span. 

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo has started to fall off offensively, ranking outside the top 125 in PPA per play and points per quality drive. The Bulls haven’t been able to establish a ground game, so it’s hard to trust them to march up and down the field against a solid Miami defense that held arguably the 2 best MAC quarterbacks in check over the last 2 weeks. Buffalo QB Ta’Quan Roberson is a walking turnover, so don’t be surprised if the RedHawks continue to generate havoc in this matchup. Frankly, unless you’re someone that absolutely loves ugly football, this game may be tough to watch. I’ll lean to the under here without much conviction, as it wouldn’t surprise me if a special teams or defensive touchdown pushed this game over the total.

Miami (OH) vs Buffalo prediction: Under 40.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 39. 

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The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns travel to meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro in the standalone game Thursday night. Both of these teams need victories, as they each try to keep their hopes alive for a bowl game. Those extra weeks of practice, and paydays for a bowl, are important to these smaller programs. Louisiana has rebounded from a 2-6 record to win at South Alabama and home to Texas State, getting back into the mix for a bowl. It has scored 36.5 PPG in the past two games, and the offense is good for 31 or more points in four of the past seven outings. They’re 4-2 ATS in the past six games, too.

Ark State has two chances to get a sixth win, punching its ticket to the postseason. It lost to Southern Miss last week, but that halted a four-game win streak. And, Ark State has covered five in a row. The Red Wolves are looking to exorcise some demons against the Ragin’ Cajuns, as Louisiana has won six of the past seven games, while holding a 4-3 ATS edge in that span. Louisiana has scored 27 or more points in each of those six wins, too, so it won’t be easy for the Red Wolves. But, Arkansas State is playing much better football lately, and it should finally be able to get over the hump.

Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction: Arkansas State -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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San Diego State is currently in the driver seat in the Mountain West, but the second spot in the conference title game is still up for grabs. Two of the teams competing for that spot are the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, both of whom sit at 4-2 in conference play ahead of their matchup on Friday night. Due to the lack of tiebreakers, both of these teams have to win out to have a chance to play for a conference title – assuming the Aztecs also win out.

The Rainbow Warriors have greatly exceeded expectations this season, especially in conference play. Each of their 4 conference wins came when they were in the underdog role, with a 5th cover in the 2-point loss to Fresno back in September. UNLV, on the other hand, has been all over the place. The Rebels are in the midst of a 2-game winning streak after their 2-game losing streak, but they’ve failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 overall. Three of those 4 non-covers were in the favorite role. When you peel back the curtain even further, you will notice that UNLV hasn’t beaten anyone of note. The Rebels lost to the 2 best conference opponents they played and haven’t beaten a single Mountain West team with a winning record. In fact, they haven’t beaten any team with a winning record this year (at the time of writing, ahead of midweek MACtion). 

UNLV’s struggles against good competition stem from its very poor defense. It ranks 114th in scoring, 130th in total defense, and 132nd in yards per play, and opponents typically find the end zone against this unit once crossing into the red zone more often than not. That will likely spell trouble against the 3rd-most efficient red zone offense in the country in Hawaii. 

A win over the top team in the conference on November 8 restored Hawaii’s chances in the Mountain West, so the Rainbow Warriors should be fired up for this trip to the mainland following a bye that UNLV did not share last week. With a rest and preparation advantage, as well as a defensive advantage, give me Hawaii with that ever-appealing + next to its price. 

Hawaii vs UNLV prediction: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +3 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that should have your attention is a big time contest in the AAC, where the East Carolina Pirates will visit the UTSA Roadrunners in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. This is one of the better spots of the Week 13 slate, and I intend to take advantage of it by backing the Roadrunners to win as short underdogs at home.

On one side, East Carolina is in the midst of a very good run of form and the Pirates are coming off one of their biggest wins in years against Memphis in a game that thrust them back into the AAC title race and potentially even an outside shot at the College Football Playoff if a couple of dominoes fall in the Sun Belt and Mountain West. East Carolina’s offense has steadily improved as the season has gone on, as quarterback Katin Houser has now thrown for nearly 3,000 yards while tossing 15 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. However, this is a brutal road trip for a Pirates team that has struggled away from home against quality competition this season, and has had trouble with UTSA in the Alamodome in years past. Given the enormity of last week’s win, don’t be surprised if East Carolina comes out a bit slow in what could be a flat spot for Blake Harrell’s team. 

As for the hosts, UTSA has been an up-and-down bunch all season long, but the Roadrunners are likely a bit better than their record given how a few of their results look in hindsight. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team certainly looks like they’ve turned a corner offensively in recent weeks, with Owen McCown and company rolling through the likes of Tulane and Charlotte at home. Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against psychical and fast teams on the road (USF and North Texas come to mind), but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. The Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue but they should be able to slow down the East Carolina ground attack and keep the Pirates behind the chains at points in this contest. And because they play at an extremely fast pace, East Carolina has not shown that it can consistently grind out close wins, particularly away from home. Given the fact that I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, there’s some inherent value on the home underdog on Saturday. 

East Carolina vs UTSA prediction: UTSA ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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The Vanderbilt Commodores needed a week off after playing LSU, Missouri, Texas, and Auburn all in a row – each of those contests being decided by 1 score. At 8-2, the Commodores still have an outside chance at a College Football Playoff berth, but they must win both of their remaining games to have a shot – starting with a home date against Kentucky on Saturday. The Wildcats have surprisingly won 3 games in a row, including a win at Auburn that sent Hugh Freeze packing and a 38-7 domination of Florida at home in Lexington. 

Despite its win at Auburn, Kentucky hasn’t been very good on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have scored just 37 points in 3 true road games this year, which makes it hard to trust them in this matchup. Vanderbilt’s offense remains one of the most potent in the sport, sitting 4th in yards per play and third-down conversion rate on the season, as well as top-20 in PPA per play and points per quality drive since Week 8 despite playing a strong assortment of defenses in that span. 

Moreover, the Commodores have one of the strongest red-zone offenses in the country, especially when playing at home. Not only do they score on over 96% of red zone trips at home, but they have the 2nd-highest red-zone touchdown rate in the country – converting 37 of their 47 total red-zone trips into touchdowns. Kentucky is nowhere close to this level of red-zone production, converting fewer than 67% of road red-zone trips into any sort of points.

Kentucky has covered in 4 of its last 5 games, but the Wildcats have seen just 1 above-average offense in that span – the Tennesse Volunteers. Coincidentally, Kentucky did not cover in that game. In fact, the Wildcats surrendered 56 points in that one. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has been an ATS ATM this year at 7-2-1, including 3 straight covers as a home favorite. With everything to play for, look for Vanderbilt to benefit from extra rest and preparation and win this one by double digits – setting a perfect scene for an in-state showdown against Tennessee in the final week of the regular season to decide its postseason fate.

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores -9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -10. 

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It’s been a rough year for the South Carolina Gamecocks, who have lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 after Saturday’s cataclysmic meltdown in College Station. South Carolina held a 30-3 lead at halftime over No. 3 Texas A&M, but forgot to come out of the locker room after the intermission. The Gamecocks never scored another point and eventually lost the game 31-30. 

Objectively, the Gamecocks have had a brutal schedule, as 6 of their last 7 opponents were all ranked at the time of kick-off. Going one step further, each of their last 4 opponents are squarely in the College Football Playoff picture among the top-12 teams in the country. However, that won’t be the case this week, as the Gamecocks will benefit from the classic late-season SEC buy-game when they host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers on Saturday (even as an SEC fan, I hope these go away with the new 9-game conference schedule) .

Some will argue that this will be a flat spot for South Carolina off the heartbreak at Texas A&M, especially considering the Gamecocks won’t make a bowl and have their rival Clemson on deck. However, I disagree with that sentiment and would argue the Gamecocks will use this as an opportunity to unleash frustration on an inferior opponent. It’s certainly a massive number to lay with a team that has not instilled much trust in bettors alike, but the talent gap in this matchup is massive – and there is certainly nothing to write home about this Coastal Carolina defense. The ‘Chants are outside the top 100 in yards per play allowed this year, and more recently, they are 75th in points allowed per quality drive and 98th in PPA per play since Week 8. Look for the Gamecocks to finally have a complete performance in this one. 

Coastal Carolina vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks -23.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -24.

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Georgia Tech’s ACC Championship hopes are in the balance this weekend when the 9-1 Yellow Jackets host the 7-3 Pitt Panthers in Atlanta. The Jackets barely – and I mean barely – survived on the road at Boston College last week. They needed 628 total yards and a 19-point 4th quarter to win the game 36-34, as a first-half fumble and missed field goal suppressed Georgia Tech’s scoring before the intermission. 

As for Pitt, the Panthers managed to keep it close against Notre Dame for all of about 6 minutes before the wheels fell off when Mason Heintschel threw a pick 6 to put the Irish up 14 – a lead from which they never looked back. Coach Pat Narduzzi won’t be mad though, right? Like he said, the Notre Dame game didn’t matter, even if the Panthers lost by 100. 

Georgia Tech’s defense is extremely worrisome. The Yellow Jackets are outside the top 70 in scoring and outside the top 100 in total defense, which leaves them exposed every single week. Look no further than last week, when the Jackets surrendered more than 30 points and 500 yards to a Boston College offense that had not surpassed 24 points since Week 2. However, I’m still siding with Tech in this one, mostly because of QB Haynes King.

King has been one of the most reliable QBs in the country this year. He has just 2 interceptions, and you could argue they weren’t his fault considering he has 0 turnover-worthy plays according to PFF. King also sits top-10 in completion percentage and has been sacked just 8 times this year – mostly due to his dynamism as a runner. The GT signal-caller leads the team with over 800 rushing yards, has ripped off 25 10+ yard runs, and leads the country in non-RB rushing touchdowns this season.

As a team, Tech averages less than 1 giveaway per game against FBS opponents, which is tied for 12th nationally. Meanwhile, Pitt ranks 114th, averaging nearly 2 giveaways per game. Narduzzi made the switch from Eli Holstein to Heintschel in an attempt to find stability at the QB position, but Heintschel has been just as careless with the ball as his predecessor – posting 6 interceptions and 13 turnover-worthy plays in 6 starts. Five of those interceptions and 7 of those turnover-worthy plays came on the road. 

Being the veteran home team with the more trustworthy QB, I like the Yellow Jackets to get the win in their final ACC game and punch their ticket to the conference championship in Charlotte – but I’m wary of laying points with them after their defensive showing last week. Hopefully they were just looking ahead to this game? 

Pitt vs Georgia Tech prediction: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML (-128) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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It’s hard to like anything other than points in a Georgia Tech game at this point. While the Yellow Jackets are very run heavy, they create big plays at a top-20 rate and have been fairly effective at getting to and putting up points in the red zone – though their red-zone touchdown rate could be a bit better. The same could be said for the Pitt Panthers, who are 5th in red-zone trips but 106th in touchdown rate once crossing the opposing 20-yard line. Like Tech, the Panthers are top-40 in plays of at least 20 yards, which of course lends right into their propensity to find the red zone. 

For as efficient as Pitt has been defensively at times this season, the Panthers really struggle with their backs against the wall. Of the 26 red zone trips allowed, opponents have punched it into the end zone 18 times against the Panthers, which makes me think the Yellow Jackets will have success finishing drives with touchdowns so long as they can consistently get deep into Pitt territory. For what it’s worth, every capable offense the Panthers have played dropped at least 30 on them. On the other side, Georgia Tech’s defensive issues are household knowledge at this point. The Yellow Jackets, more likely than not, are going to give up a few scores here. I’m expecting a shootout. 

Pitt vs Georgia Tech prediction: Over 61.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 62.5.

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The Akron Zips hit the road for Bowling Green on Tuesday night in a battle between 7-loss teams at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, and it’s a game just about pride. Both teams are eliminated from bowl contention, so we’ll have to rely upon recent trends. Bowling Green has won three in a row in this series, while going 7-3 in the past 10. Be careful, though, as Akron has cashed in 4 of the past 5 outings. However, since Nov. 17, 2018, Bowling Green has covered both times as a single-digit favorite.

Akron suffered a disappointing 42-35 OT loss at home against Kent State last time out, dashing the hopes of the Zips for going to the postseason. The Zips are just 2-3 straight up and ATS in the past 5 games, too, with the defense allowing 42 points twice in the past four outings. For Eddie George’s Bowling Green team, it’s been a tough past month. In fact, the team has forgotten how to play offense, averaging just 12.8 points per game over in the past 4 outings, all losses, while also failing to cover in each game, coughing up at least 24 points in each outing. Let’s roll with Akron, as they have QB Ben Finley, RB Jordan Gant, and a functional offense.

Akron vs Bowling Green prediction: Akron +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Western Michigan Broncos sit all alone in first place heading into the penultimate game against the Northern Illinois Huskies, a team with 7 losses and no longer eligible for a bowl. Western Michigan needs a victory to move close to clinching a trip to the MAC Championship Game. It won’t clinch, but it will come very close to punching its ticket. Western Michigan has topped Central Michigan and Ohio in the past two games, both at home, but it lost 26-17 at Miami (Ohio) on Oct. 25, and it was not terribly impressive in a 21-3 win at UMass, one of the worst defenses in the nation. They’re 1-3 straight up and 2-2 ATS in 4 road games to date, so taking WMU is a bit of a leap of faith.

Northern Illinois spanked UMass last week, 45-3, covering as a 9-point favorite as the Over connected. They’re won 2 of the past 3 games, while covering 2 times, too. The Huskies are just 1-2 SU/ATS in 3 home games against FBS opponents, with a 21-7 win over Ball State last time out on Oct. 25 as a 6.5-point favorite. It is still 2-6 ATS in the past 8 games. The defense for NIU has been hit or miss, allowing 16 or fewer points in four of the past seven games, while allowing 42 or more points in 2 of the past 4 outings. That kind of inconsistency is why NIU is in the shape it’s in, and not going bowling. Look for Western to get the job done on the road, keeping on track for the MAC title game.

WMU vs NIU prediction: Western Michigan -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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