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College Football Picks

Get free college football picks for the best action throughout 2025-26 season, including college football picks against the spread, straight-up, money line picks, and total picks (over/under). Our data-devouring experts find you the best betting trends and NCAAF picks this week.

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Indiana

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Point Spread Pick

Miami Florida +9.0(-110)

Reasoning

After a long and grueling season filled with ebbs and flows, the National Championship Game is finally here. We have a fascinating matchup on our hands on Monday, as the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers are set to take on the Miami Hurricanes, who are a bit of a Cinderella story based on their seeding in the playoff bracket. Miami has knocked off the likes of Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss in consecutive games, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers rolled through Alabama and Oregon in extremely impressive fashion to advance to this point. Which of these teams will come out on top at Hard Rock Stadium and take home a national title? It’s almost time to find out.

I went against Indiana a week ago, and while that wager didn’t have much of a chance, I’m going back to the well with a cautious fade of Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers in the biggest game of the season. While it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen from the Hoosiers over their last few contests, the basic market fundamentals clearly point to Miami as the side in this game at the current number. For starters, it’s clear that a wager on Indiana in this game is buying the Hoosiers at the peak of their market value, and Indiana has already taken a ton of steam that has moved the line from 7 points at the open all the way up to nearly double digits. This is a pretty significant move considering that Miami is 3-0 against the number in the postseason, and the Hurricanes are going to be playing on their home field in this one, which has to count for something in a game of this magnitude. Even after factoring in Indiana’s massive improvements throughout the season, I still can’t get to this number given how well Miami is playing at the moment.

While the Hurricanes might be a Cinderella story based on their seed, this team has been great in all areas during this improbable run to the title game. Mario Cristobal’s group appears to be playing its best football of the season on defense, and the offense has certainly come along and gotten more comfortable with each playoff game. The Hurricanes certainly have a massive test ahead against Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 1st in points per drive). However, given the fact that Miami’s defense just had to face Trinidad Chambliss and the electric Ole Miss offense — in addition to the excellent Texas A&M offense and Ohio State’s dynamic wide receiving corps — we can expect the Hurricanes to be prepared and up to the task in this one, particularly at the line of scrimmage. On the other side of the ball, the Indiana defense has also been a top-5 unit in the sport over the course of the season, but given the fact that Miami was able to move the ball successfully on the ground with Mark Fletcher Jr. against both Texas A&M and Ohio State, the Hoosiers’ formidable defensive front shouldn’t spook this Hurricanes ground game.

There’s no doubt that Indiana has looked like a wrecking ball all postseason long, and the Hoosiers should certainly be in position to walk away with a championship on Monday. However, this number is just a bit too rich for my blood now that we’ve cleared a full possession, and it would not shock me if the ‘Canes got a nice boost from their home fans in a game that is being played in their backyard. I’ll take the points with Cristobal and bank on another spirited effort from his team.

Miami vs Indiana prediction: Miami +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 48.5(-110)

Reasoning

While both offenses have shown an ability to generate consistent success at various points in the postseason, this is still a game that is being played between 2 of the best defenses in the country. After all, Miami has faced a litany of good offenses this season and the Hurricanes (9th in success rate, 6th in points per drive allowed) have risen to the occasion each time. On the other side of the ball, the Hurricanes’ ground game has been efficient against multiple strong defenses during the playoff, it’s far from a guarantee that Miami will suddenly see success on the ground against an Indiana defense that is 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush (CFB-Graphs).

Carson Beck has struggled when pressured this season and the Hoosiers’ secondary has performed well against a variety of passing attacks all season long, so I wouldn’t expect them to be intimidated by the Miami wide receiving corps. Ultimately, I can only look toward the under in a game that could be more of a grinder than what the market is projecting.

Miami vs Indiana pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Player Receiving Yards Pick

M. Toney (MIA) - 60+ rec yds(-114)

Reasoning

This is my favorite player prop bet of the National Championship, and because of that, I included it in my Same Game Parlay. However, I will touch on why I like Toney to tally at least 60 yards again for you here.

Toney leads the Hurricanes in targets and receptions by a wide margin. With 127 targets, he is 50 ahead of the 2nd-most-targeted Miami receiver in Keelan Marion, and his 99 receptions are 43 more than Marion, as well. On those 99 receptions, Toney has compiled 1,089 yards and 11 yards per reception. He also averages 7.5 yards after the catch by way of his game-breaking speed and versatility out of the slot.

Ultimately, I see Toney as the X-factor for the Hurricanes in this game. Mark Fletcher Jr. is going to be heavily involved in the run game, but Toney will be called upon early and often in the passing game to stretch the field and get behind Indiana’s secondary, which is an area he has excelled all season.

Indiana’s defense is certainly tenacious and one of the best in the country, but the Hoosiers can be vulnerable on the back half, specifically on passing downs. Dating back to the end of October, Indiana is 55th in passing downs success rate, as well as outside the top 90 in passing downs PPA and outside the top 100 in passing downs explosiveness allowed. This is important to note because Indiana’s defense is so good on standard downs, forcing opponents into obvious passing situations more often than not. Luckily for Miami, the ‘Canes are excellent in these obvious passing situations, boasting top-20 marks in passing downs PPA and success rate since Week 9. Toney is a catalyst for that success.

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Player Rushing Yards Pick

K. Black (IND) - 60+ rush yds(-114)

Reasoning

Indiana’s backfield is very close to evenly split between Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, so it can be difficult to pick one to bet on – especially because their yardage props are very similar. However, I like Black here thanks to his ability to break away from defenders. PFF has his breakaway percentage at 42% compared to Hemby’s 28.5%, which I expect to come into play against a Miami defense that is 114th in rush explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time since Week 9. For as good as Miami’s defense has been, the Hurricanes are outside the top 20 in opposing rushes of 10+ yards, and they are 35th in opposing rushes of at least 20 yards. Black can take advantage of that.

Indiana’s backfield timeshare is definitely worrisome when you’re betting either running back to go over his yardage prop, but Black’s workload has been consistent since the Big Ten Championship. He had 16 carries for 69 yards against Ohio State, 15 carries for 99 yards against Alabama and 12 carries for 63 yards against Oregon. Hemby may get a few more carries than Black, but Black is the one that has been more productive with his workload in this playoff run, as his 4.3 YPC against Ohio State, 6.6 YPC against Alabama and 5.3 YPC against Oregon were all better than what Hemby averaged on his carries. Don’t be surprised to see Black find a couple of chunk runs to help buoy our over.

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Player Kicking Points Pick

C. Davis (MIA) - Over 5.5 kicking pts(-130)

Reasoning

This line is juiced up into a range that I don’t typically like betting on player props, but the perceived value is hard to ignore, as this number is 6.5 at most other books. Carter Davis certainly hasn’t been the most reliable in Miami’s playoff run, as he is just 3-of-7 since the Texas A&M game, but 3 of those misses came in College Station. On Monday night, Davis will kick in his home stadium, where he is 9-of-11. For what it’s worth, he’s also made every single XP this year (49/49).

I like Miami to cover, so I think the Hurricanes will score enough to finish inside the number, but I also like the under, so I don’t see too many touchdowns being scored. Extra points certainly help our cause on this prop bet, but touchdowns aren’t the reason I like Davis’s kicking points to go over 5.5. The reason I like this prop to go over – and the full-game to stay under – is because of the red-zone defense from both teams. Indiana specifically has been elite down in scoring range, allowing just 9 red-zone touchdowns. However, the Hoosiers have surrendered 12 red-zone field goals, which ranks 93rd nationally. Cignetti is happy to give up 3 points rather than 7, and Mario Cristobal has shown he is fine with field goal attempts in scoring range – especially in lower-scoring games.

All we need is 2 field goals to ensure a win, and Davis has connected on 2 field goals in 6 games this year. He has also surpassed 5.5 kicking points in 11 games. The extra points are the cherry on top here, but I’m expecting at least 3 field goal attempts for Davis on Monday night. For what it’s worth, Indiana has surrendered at least 6 kicking points in 3 of 5 true road games this year. They should have surrendered at least 7 kicking points to Ohio State, too, but Jayden Fielding missed a 27-yard attempt late in the 4th quarter.

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Sam Avellone

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

Miami Florida +8.5

Game Totals

Under 47.5

Player Receiving Yards

M. Toney (MIA) - 60+ rec yds

Reasoning

Miami vs Indiana parlay pick: Miami Hurricanes +8.5 over Indiana Hoosiers (-112)

Yes, it’s hard to go against Indiana given how dominant the Hoosiers have been to this point. If this game was being played anywhere else, I would probably lay any number with the Hoosiers against any opponent, but that’s not the case here. Miami playing at home is a massive factor in this game, especially with the line being somewhat inflated given Indiana’s impressive showing in the CFP thus far. For what it’s worth, the lookahead line for this matchup was around 5.5 points.

I expect this game to be lower-scoring, so getting over a touchdown with a true home team in a national title game is very appealing to me just from a pure numbers standpoint – especially considering how dominant Miami’s defensive line has been. The Hurricanes should be able to get pressure in the face of Fernando Mendoza, and they should be able to bring him down a few times, given their 3+ sacks per game. Mendoza hasn’t been invincible in that aspect, as he was sacked 3 times against both Ohio State and Alabama – both of whom have stout defensive lines in their own right, though not as good as Miami’s.

The offensive side of the ball is most concerning for Miami, given Carson Beck’s turnover-prone play, but Mark Fletcher Jr.’s reliability as a runner should take some pressure off Beck. Furthermore, Indiana’s hyper-aggressive defensive approach could leave the Hoosiers vulnerable to big plays on the back end, where they are outside the top 60 in explosive pass rate allowed since Week 9. Ultimately, while Indiana has been a juggernaut, Miami won’t go down without a fight, and the ‘Canes have enough to keep it within the number.

Miami vs Indiana SGP pick: Under 47.5 (-115)

As I alluded to, I expect this game to be low-scoring. Both coaches should deploy a methodical approach here, especially early, where they rely on their running backs to chip away at their opposition and help put their respective offenses into third-and-manageable situations. At least, that’s been the game plan all year for these teams, as Miami and Indiana are both in the bottom 10 nationally in seconds per play with above-average rush rates. Indiana has already played 3 other teams in the bottom 10 in pace this season (Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State), and each of those games stayed under this total by a decent margin.

Red-zone defense should also play a huge factor in this game staying under the total. Both Indiana and Miami are top-10 in red-zone attempts allowed, top-25 in red-zone touchdown rate allowed and top-8 in red-zone touchdowns allowed this season. In fact, Indiana and Miami have allowed just 28 combined red-zone touchdowns in 30 combined games this year, which is still less than almost half the teams in the country. Now add in the fact that this game will be played outdoors on natural grass rather than on a fast track – in a dome on turf — and you will see why the under has so much appeal.

Miami vs Indiana SGP pick: Malachi Toney (MIA) 60+ receiving yards (-114)

Malachi Toney is the X-factor for Miami in this game. We all know Fletcher will get his share of carries, but Toney will be relied upon to stretch the field and get behind the defense, which he has done frequently throughout the year. For as good as Indiana’s defense has been, the Hoosiers are most vulnerable in the secondary, specifically on passing downs. Since Week 9, the Hoosiers are outside the top 90 in passing downs PPA and 55th in passing downs success rate allowed, which should come into play frequently because their standard downs efficiency is so good, forcing opponents into frequent and obvious passing situations.

This is also where the Hoosiers surrender the most big plays, as they are outside the top 100 in passing downs explosiveness allowed since the end of October. In case you were wondering, Miami’s offense is top-20 in passing downs PPA and success rate in that span, and Toney is an integral part of that.

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College Football Picks This Week

With so many conferences and hundreds of matches played every weekend, the biggest test with any college football picks is unearthing those hidden gems. Here at Pickswise, that is exactly what we do. By focusing on the Power conferences and the Top-25 teams, along with a select number of other matches, our experts can focus on the key games and leave no stone unturned in our research. Pickswise is the home of free NCAAF picks, and we break down all of today’s college football action, with each pick coming with accompanying analysis, including all of the key stats, trends, and reasons for our pick.

Be sure to check back each week during the season for all of our top college football picks today.

Expert College Football Picks Against The Spread (ATS)

The most popular college football pick is against the spread (ATS). Against the spread betting isn’t about picking a winner of the football game, it’s about picking the team who will cover the spread.

Let’s say you bet your money that Team A covers the spread (wins by a certain amount of points), Michigan State -6.5 for example. Or that Team B will cover the spread (keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect), Ohio State +6.5. If Michigan State beat Ohio State 30-27, then Ohio State covers the spread, and underdog backers are cashing tickets with +6.5 on Ohio State.

Against-the-spread betting is extremely popular in football and that’s one of the main reasons why it’s one of the most popular college football picks on our site.

NCAA Football Today – Today’s NCAAF Picks

At Pickswise we cover all of the Power NCAA football today, with full game previews, picks, and betting analysis brought to you by our college football experts. A typical college football season runs from August to December and is preceded by the College Football Bowl Season and College Football Playoff, culminating in The College Football Playoff National Championship game in January.

When Do You Post Your College Football Picks

We post our college football picks for this weekend a couple of days before the scheduled match. We post our picks early enough so that you can digest the information, do your own research into the match, and make sure you get the best lines and odds for that particular pick. Like anything in sport, some things are unpredictable, and on occasion, we may choose to delay posting a pick if there is something like a key injury or likely conditions that could have an impact on the outcome of the match, or our pick itself. Check back leading up to the weekend every week throughout the season to see what NCAAF Picks we have for today.

Free Expert NCAAF Picks

All of our NCAAF picks are absolutely free, all season long. We have a team of expert NCAAF handicappers on hand to preview the very best of the Power conference or Top-25 ranked match, every week, all season long. Each of these previews comes with our experts’ NCAAF pick on the three main markets (Money Line, Spreads & Totals) with a full breakdown of why they like a particular side, as well as a confidence rating for each individual NCAAF pick. You can find every NCAAF pick throughout the season right here on the NCAAF Picks page, or check out our NCAAF Parlays for even more insight into betting better on NCAA Football this week.