College Football Picks

Kennesaw State heads to South Florida looking for its first win of the season in three tries on the road. Meanwhile, FIU welcomes the Owls looking for redemption after losing 27-26 in suburban Atlanta last season as a 9-point favorite. FIU outgained Kennesaw State by a 400-to-358 margin in total yardage, but the Owls had a fourth quarter comeback after entering the final quarter down 26-17.

FIU is flying high after dealing Western Kentucky its first conference loss last week in Bowling Green, winning 25-6 in emphatic fashion as a 10-point underdog. That snapped a 10-game losing streak on the road, which, technically should have ended against Kennesaw State, if not for the big comeback last November by KSU. The Owls have won four in a row, and they’ve covered three in a row, scoring 24 or more points in every game to date. Their only two losses are at Wake Forest, 10-9, on Aug. 29, and against No. 2 Indiana on Sept. 6, falling 56-9. The Owls have covered three in a row, too. Still, a trip to South Florida in the heat and humidity will be tough to overcome, as will a battle against a Panthers team which handily topped the previously first-place Hilltoppers in their place.

FIU Moneyline (+140) at time of publishing. Playable to +120.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers head down to Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana looking for redemption after getting absolutely runover in unexpected fashion by visiting FIU last week, suffering their first loss of Conference USA play. It had previously been smooth sailing for the ‘Toppers, as they were not only 3-0 inside the league, but also 3-0 against the spread (ATS) against C-USA opponents. In fact, Western was 5-1 ATS in the previous six games before FIU came to town and won outright as a 10-point underdog. Nobody saw that coming, even FIU’s biggest support, singer Pitbull.

As far as Louisiana Tech is concerned, it is smack-dab in the middle of the C-USA chase, but it is also coming off a stunning loss. The Bulldogs were also unbeaten in league play, and favored last week, and, like WKU, they were also manhandled. Louisiana Tech was belted 35-7 at Kennesaw State last week as a 4.5-point favorite, snapping a 3-game win streak, while suffering its first non-cover of the season. The Under is 5-1 on the season for LT, while the Under has cashed in four in a row for WKU. Since both teams are a bit hard to figure at the moment, after separate stunning losses, and the Under trend is pretty clear, we’ll lean low on the total. But, if you were looking for an SGP opportunity, WKU and the points with the Under is the way to go.

Under 50 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

It’s been a trying season for the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. They head to Newark, DE for the first-ever matchup with the Delaware Blue Hens in a Conference USA game at Delaware Stadium looking to keep their bleak hopes of a bowl game alive. It’s technically possible, even at 1-5, but MTSU needs to get going now. While the Blue Raiders have the dismal record, three of the past four games are one-score games, with Middle Tennessee going 1-2 SU in those games. It had a 14-13 win at Nevada back on Sept. 13 for the only victory. It is coming off a narrow, gut-wrenching 22-20 loss to Missouri State, which could have turned things around significantly. The Under has cashed in the past two games, and the defense isn’t that bad allowing 24 or fewer points in three of the past four.

For Delaware, it is .500 at 3-3, and just 1-2 inside the conference. It is transitioning to FBS, but if it qualifies with six wins, and there are not enough bowl-eligible teams, it is possible they could still go bowling. The Blue Hens have lost consecutive games to Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, two of the better teams in C-USA. The Under is 2-1 in the past three games, and 4-2 in six games overall. This won’t be a defensive slog in Delaware, but 55 is an awfully high number, especially given Middle’s lack of offense, and above-average D.

Under 55 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 53.

The Missouri State Bears head out west to face the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces on Wednesday night. After getting absolutely torched at USC in the opener, 73-13, the Bears have stayed the course and pulled things together. They scored nice road wins at Marshall and Middle Tennessee, and are back to .500. However, it won just 22-20 at MTSU last time out, failing to cover as a 2.5-point favorite. The Under has cashed in five straight games since that annihilation at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to open the season.

For New Mexico State, like MO State, it is also 3-3. This game is crucial for both teams, in terms of bowl eligibility. Missouri State would get a bid only if enough bowl-eligible teams cannot fill the spots, as it is transitioning to FBS. But, it has a good shot at satisfying bowl-eligibility criteria. The Aggies have been stout at home, winning all three games, including a 37-10 rout of Sam Houston on Oct. 2 in the most recent home contest. It is also 2-0 ATS at home against FBS opponents, while covering the past two. The Over is 3-1 in the past four games, so it’s a rather conflicting trend for totals. We’ll lean into the moneyline for the home side, as the Aggies nearly pulled off the upset at Liberty, and they’re playing really good ball lately.

New Mexico State Moneyline (+100) at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

The North Texas Mean Green bounced back from their first loss of the season, improving to 6-1 with a 55-17 win over UTSA. The Roadrunners never stood a chance, as the Mean Green jumped out to a 17-7 first quarter lead and never looked back. They outgained the Roadrunners 584-329, accumulating 270 of those yards on the ground at 6.1 yards per carry. 

UNT has surpassed 35 points in all but one game, which was a 33-30 overtime win over Western Michigan in Week 2. Meanwhile, Charlotte has yet to surpass 35 points against any FBS opponent. In fact, the 49ers haven’t even surpassed 26 points against FBS competition. Their most recent outing was a 49-14 home loss to Temple in which they trailed 28-7 at halftime, turned the ball over 3 times and passed for only 158 yards. 

There isn’t much history between these teams, as they’ve only met twice. The 49ers took both of those meetings back in 2019 and 2020, but these programs are in very different positions now. With a top-30 ranking in both PPA per play and success rate since Week 4, North Texas has the best offense Charlotte will have seen since its game against South Florida – one the Niners lost 54-26. It could have even been worse if USF didn’t turn the ball over 4 times. 

Charlotte ranks outside the top 100 in most metrics on both sides of the ball, and with UNT sitting at 2-1 in the conference race behind 3 undefeated teams, the Mean Green have absolutely no wiggle room. Look for them to take care of business and win by margin over a rebuilding Charlotte program. 

North Texas vs Charlotte prediction: North Texas Mean Green -26.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -27.

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The Boilermakers aren’t a team that exactly have raised eyebrows in recent memory. Last year, Purdue was the proverbial hackey sack that got kicked around the Big Ten and the favorite chew toy of many. On cue, the Boilers have picked up where they have left off, dropping their last five overall, getting whacked in every one of these contests. Rutgers meanwhile comes in on a four-game skid of their own but they have more wins on the year, sitting at 3-4 compared to Purdue’s 2-5. However, are the Scarlet Knights a team that should be spotting points on the road in this situation? Probably not. The Knights barely got by Ohio in their season opener as a 15.5-point favorite. Yes, they did what they had to do against Miami Ohio and Norfolk State but that was in Piscataway. It’s a different task to win in West Lafayette and be expected to do so.

The line also speaks to us. The Boilers are not even being given a field goal and this is a team that has lost every game this year by a touchdown or more. If Rutgers were worthy of a road favorite designation, they’d be laying more here but they are not. Purdue gets off the snide. Boilers outright.

Rutgers vs. Purdue prediction: Purdue ML (+115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Following their 4th consecutive loss, the Auburn Tigers hit the road to play the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are losers of 5 straight. Last time out, the Tigers held a 17-10 lead in the 4th quarter at home against Missouri, but they surrendered a game-tying touchdown with about 5 minutes left and eventually went on to lose in overtime. Despite the loss, Auburn outgained Missouri and won the turnover battle, though they were just 6/16 on third down. Meanwhile, Arkansas suffered its 2nd consecutive 3-point loss to a top 10 team, surrendering 40+ points for the 3rd time in 5 games. 

By the numbers, Arkansas has a very poor defense. But are the Hogs really that bad on that side of the ball, or does it have something to do with the quality of opponent they’ve played over the last 6 weeks? Probably a mixture of the two, but Arkansas has gone up against Ole Miss, Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee and Texas A&M one after the other. All 5 of those teams are in the top 25 in PPA per play since Week 4. 

Unlike those teams, Auburn is not good offensively. In fact, the Tigers have been pretty awful offensively this season, as they enter this game outside the top 110 in multiple advanced metrics on that side of the ball. Their biggest issues are penalties and QB Jackson Arnold’s inefficiency on a per pass basis, which would be problematic for them if they were to face an early deficit on the road against a very good Arkansas offense that has yet to show signs of quit under interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite a 2-5 overall record. 

On a per play basis, the Razorbacks have been extremely efficient with the ball in their hands thanks to QB Taylen Green, but turnovers have been their Achilles heel thus far. Those self-inflicted mistakes are a concern against a strong Auburn defense. However, I have zero faith in Auburn’s offense to actually capitalize on Arkansas’ turnovers. In fact, I have zero faith in this Auburn team overall at this current moment in time. Eventually, the mental and emotional drain of losing close game after close game weighs on players, not to mention the swirling rumors regarding the uncertainty of head coach Hugh Freeze’s future with the program and the unending criticism of Arnold under center. Take the Razorbacks in this one. 

Auburn vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +1.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -1. 

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If this were Week One, this game would have a completely different connotation. Not too long ago, the Gamecocks were ranked and Alabama wasn’t on the back-end of four straight ranked wins against conference opponents. These are two sides trending in opposite directions and now South Carolina is being offered at a number that cannot be passed up.

Not only do the points look good here, but USC looks tempting as an outright proposition on the Money Line and such maybe worth a consideration for those that are adventurous. But we’ll stick to the point spread. South Carolina in many ways is reminiscent of Florida State. The Gamecocks have a physical and dynamic quarterback in Lanorris Sellers who could give Alabama’s rush defense fits like Tommy Castellanos did. Let’s not also forget that South Carolina has one of the most animated home environments in all of the SEC which will make things difficult for the Tide. Alabama on the road this season got help from the Dawgs and Mizzou to escape with a field-goal win and their routs of Vandy and Tennessee were in Tuscaloosa. This is a completely different animal if South Carolina doesn’t do the Tide any favors.

We know, the Gamecocks got buried by the Oklahoma and look like they are dead in the water here, but that sets the table for the unthinkable. Alabama will not walk into Columbia and simply have it’s way. Upset potential is high here and it would not be surprising by the least. But this number is inflated due to recency bias and those backing the Gamecocks get to take advantage. Grab the points.

Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: South Carolina +13.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +13.

It’s not the biggest game on the slate by any means, but one of the more consequential contests in the SEC takes place in Starkville, Mississippi on Saturday between the Texas Longhorns and Mississippi State Bulldogs. A week ago, I was all over the Bulldogs to keep things within one score against the Florida Gators on the road, and Mississippi State was within the number for all 60 minutes and could’ve even won the game outright if not for a late interception in Florida territory in the final minutes. It just so happens that I’m going back to the well with the Bulldogs at home against a Texas team that is absolutely reeling at the moment. 

After looking like it had finally figured some things out on offense in recent weeks, Texas is coming off an extremely fortunate victory over Kentucky last week that is sure to send Steve Sarkisian and company back to the drawing board. Texas gained just 179 yards against the Wildcats and registered only 3.3 yards per play, while the Longhorns surrendered 395 yards and allowed nearly 40 minutes of time of possession. Mississippi State is certainly a better team than Kentucky and the Bulldogs will be at home, where they’ve excelled at this season, already beating Arizona State as an underdog of a touchdown and nearly upsetting Tennessee as a 7.5-point home ‘dog. Road starts have not been kind to Texas quarterback Arch Manning this season, as the Longhorns signal caller has just one touchdown pass over his first two outings away from home. This won’t be an easy matchup against a Bulldogs defense that has surprisingly been a top 40 unit against the pass to this point, and ranks 27th in points per drive allowed per CFB-Graphs. 

As for the other side of the ball, the Mississippi State offense should be able to keep the Bulldogs in this game, even against a Texas defense that is a top 10 unit in the sport. The Bulldogs offense is a veteran group that sits at tops in the nation in rushing success rate, while sitting at 22nd nationally in success rate. The Texas defense is one that has the ability to slow down any team, but it remains to see if the Longhorns will take the early lead, or will Jeff Lebby’s group be the one to bring the energy and punch Texas in the mouth early on. The market continues to overrate this Texas team, especially since the Longhorns have shown us next to nothing to deserve their power rating to this point. With that in mind, let’s take the ‘dog with the points.

Texas vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +7

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