Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Predictions, Odds and PGA Tour Picks for Thursday, 03/05/26

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Most players would be happy with form figures of 3-4-12 and $1.7 million in earnings from their last 3 starts, but Scheffler is not most players. If he avoids another slow start, he’s obviously a massive contender, but odds of +300 reflect his chances. At three times the price, Rory McIlroy looks a better investment.

McIlroy’s putter deserted him at the Genesis Invitational, where he was a runner-up behind Jacob Bridgeman last time out, but his performance from tee to green, particularly with his irons, was full of promise with the Florida Swing in mind. The Northern Irishman, who switched back to blades after a brief experiment with cavity back irons, is supremely comfortable in the Sunshine State, including at Bay Hill, where he was a champion in 2018 as part of 6 top-10 finishes. He has never finished outside the top 30 in 11 appearances.

McIlroy tops the PGA Tour strokes-gained: approach statistics this season and ranks 7th in greens in regulation, and a similar performance will surely see him contend for a 2nd Arnold Palmer title.