BMW Championship Golf Predictions, Odds and PGA Tour Picks for Thursday, 08/14/25
BMW Championship Pickswise Expert Predictions
Caves Valley has hosted the nomadic BMW Championship on one previous occasion — the 2021 edition of the tournament in which Patrick Cantlay outdueled Bryson DeChambeau in an epic 6-hole playoff. The Tom Fazio-designed course proved easy for the PGA Tour elite 4 years ago, with the 2 playoff combatants reaching 27 under par in regulation, and while the Maryland venue should be tougher this time around, a double-digit under-par score should still be required.
Scottie Scheffler takes his customary place as market leader, but it’s McIlroy who catches the eye, having taken the decision to skip the St. Jude — a move which could prove a masterstroke both this week and at the Tour Championship at East Lake next week. Already assured of a spot in the top 30, the pressure is off for McIlroy, and there’s no doubt that he’s an excellent fit for Caves Valley, a long course where driving distance and putting are likely to prove the routes to success. While he’s not always been a great putter, McIlroy has had an impressive year with putter in hand, ranking 4th in strokes-gained on the green and 3rd among those in this field.
Despite an underwhelming few months since his emotionally draining Masters win, McIlroy has played well in recent starts, finishing 6th at the Travelers Championship, 2nd at the Scottish Open and 7th in the British Open. McIlroy was no match for Scheffler and his red-hot putter at Royal Portrush, but he has a long-held affinity for courses designed or redesigned by Fazio. He is a 4-time champion at Quail Hollow and he won the 2022 CJ Cup at Congaree, while he was also 4th in the 2021 BMW Championship at this venue.
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