It's not common that situational betting allows us to implement our philosophy in back-to-back games of a series, but ergo. Rinse and repeat. Give me the Rays again in Game 2. This time we have a legitimate pitchers' duel between Drew Rasmussen and Max Fried, and the market isn't hiding what it expects. The total is 6.5. That's microscopic.
Rasmussen enters 15-5 with a 2.72 ERA, while Fried sits at 5-4 with a 2.63 ERA. But with Fried, we know what we get from him when he is on. Both are outstanding. But Rasmussen, however, has been on another level recently. Since a difficult outing against these Yankees in July, he's gone 8-0 with a 1.91 ERA across his last 11 starts. Fried deserves every bit of respect too. But I'm not trying to determine which excellent pitcher is marginally better. I'm looking at another game where the market believes runs could be extraordinarily difficult to manufacture and asking why I should lay considerable juice with either side. At a total of just 6.5, variance becomes our friend and its the ideal environment for a dog to bark. With a pitcher like Rasmussen dealing, that penchant is even greater. Thus, I'm happy to grab the Rays at a plus price again in the second leg of this doubleheader. And let's run this back for a moment from a strategy perspective. Both games are 50/50 propositions, and if that holds water, then we profit on the day overall. Make no mistake though, Tampa can win Game 1, and they can certainly take Game 2.
Rays vs Yankees Game 2 prediction: Tampa Bay +115 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +105.
