At 8-2 in their last 10 games, the Padres are one of, if not the hottest team in baseball and have locked up a Wild Card spot because of it. To close out the regular season, they will host their division rivals in the Arizona Diamondbacks, who still remain in the hunt for the final NL Wild Card spot, trailing the Phillies by two games. Considering the circumstances, the Diamondbacks give the Padres a run for their money for the “hottest team” award, as they have won five straight, scoring at least five runs in each with their backs against the metaphorical playoff wall.
The Padres just took two of three games from the Dodgers and now return home for a relatively meaningless game, though San Diego would probably like another win to feel comfortable about earning home-field advantage over the Cubs in the Wild Card round. However, with Casey Mize expected on the mound for the hosts, that won’t exactly come easy. The Padres may have won six of his nine starts since joining the team, but he carries a 7.13 September ERA and has surrendered three or more earned runs in four of his last six starts. His first start as a Padre was against Arizona, and he allowed eight runs in only 3.1 innings in that outing.
The visitors and playoff-chasers will give the ball to Brandon Pfaadt, who hasn’t been that much better than Mize in September with his 5.19 ERA. However, holding the Yankees to one run in 4.1 innings last week was encouraging, as is the fact that he has held the Padres to just 1 unearned run in his last two appearances (11.2 innings) against the club since the beginning of July. For what it’s worth, the Snakes have won seven straight road games in which Pfaadt started.
The plus-money price is appealing on Arizona here given all the circumstances surrounding this game. Give me the Snakes to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+116) at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.
