NBA Best Bets Today: October 27 Picks & Predictions
It’s a relatively quiet NBA slate with just four games being played, but there is still plenty of value to be found in what should be an exciting night regardless. NBC will have the two biggest games of the day. First up is the Pistons vs Knicks clash at MSG live from 8:00 pm ET, followed by an all-Western Conference Trail Blazers vs Lakers showdown at 11:00 pm ET.
I’ve done my research on all four matchups, calculated some numbers and come up with my three favorite bets for this evening action. Don’t forget, we also have you covered with NBA picks throughout the season -- but for now let’s jump into my NBA best bets for Tuesday’s slate!
NBA Best Bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 21.5 points (-112)
Realistically, there are only two players the Celtics have to keep an eye on in Tuesday’s game against the Brooklyn Nets. Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr. are the lone double-digit scorers for the Nets in their first three games, it’s only a matter of time a contender decides to pull the trigger on MPJ and makes a trade for him. Until that happens, I’ll be backing the over on his point total as most of the possessions on offense for the Nets are going either through him or Randle.
He has cleared this line twice in three outings, shooting a respectable 46% from the field and also making nine total threes in those two games. Since arriving to the Nets, he has faced the C's a total of four times while clearing this number three times and averaging 26.5 ppg during that stretch on 53% from the field and 46% from deep. I quite like his head-to-head match-up with Paul George, who isn’t the most mobile of defenders these days late in his career. Boston allows the 10th-most points to opposing small forwards this season, so I’m convinced MPJ is in line to have a solid scoring game.
NBA Best Bet: Kings vs Spurs Over 229.5 (-115)
Only three teams in the entire NBA have done worse on the defensive end through the first week of the season than the Sacramento Kings. A lack of effort on that end is clearly visible, as Kings have allowed an average of 124 ppg vs the Clippers, Trail Blazers and Grizzlies. Neither of those three teams is as talented as the Spurs are on the offensive end, so it could be another long night for head coach Doug Christie -- who, ironically, was a defense first player back in his day.
The Spurs' first three games all stayed under the total, but following their huge performance on offense vs Dallas where they dropped 122 points, I can definitely see that trend reversing. In head-to-head meetings vs the Kings they’ve dropped 132, 139 and 123 points last season, sweeping the regular season series by an average of 19.3 points per win. Sacramento will look to run -- and with players like Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis, they have a capable unit of putting up a ton of points regardless of the opponent. Expect a high-scoring affair.
Our full Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Predictions are available
NBA Best Bet: Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 over Portland Trail Blazers (-104)
I’m actually surprised the Lakers are favored by only 3.5 points; in my opinion, the talent disparity is working heavily in their favor. Luka Doncic and company are off to a flying 3-0 start to the year. They have not had the toughest of schedule so far, and that continues being the case in the coming weeks, as well, up until the Pistons game on November 9. Over the weekend we saw an impressive 18-point comeback and a win over the Jazz, with Doncic scoring the first 50-point game of the season in a near triple-double performance.
LeBron James leaving has really opened things up on offense for this team, and head coach JJ Redick can finally leave his imprint on how he wants the Lakers to play. Only the Timberwolves are shooting a higher percentage from three in the first three games, and the Lakers also lead the league averaging 128 ppg while attempting the fewest field goals per game. Portland has also done well by winning its opening two games, but I’m worried that backcourt of Damian Lillard and Ja Morant simply isn’t up to the task defensively. I’ll go with the Lakers to maintain their unbeaten run.
Read our Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers Predictions
