NBA Player Props Today: October 28 Best Bets & Picks, featuring Jay Huff

The NBA season is one week in and the headlines are centered around injuries: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Paolo Banchero, Cason Wallace, and Jalen Suggs are expected to miss extended periods of time and in J-Dubs case, the entire season. Aside from the injuries the early story lines have to revolve around the jump that Cooper Flagg has made to top 15 player in the league at just 19 years old and the Miami Heat, now led by Giannis, sit at 0-4 with real questions around the on floor fit of him and Bam Adebayo. Wednesdays are the big days in NBA, so let's dive in!

Jay Huff (IND) Under 15.5 points + rebounds (-128)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The Pacers are a part of that injury bug I mentioned in the open and Ivica Zubac will miss tonight, thrusting Jay Huff into the starting lineup. A large part of my handicapping NBA is numbers based and this line is inflated in my opinion due to how poor of a rebounding team the 76ers are. Huff on the season is averaging 0.61 points + rebounds per min of play and I'm projecting him at 22 min tonight. This would land my projection at 13.46 PR, well below the 15.5 line DK is giving us. Despite being a poor rebounding team, the 76ers are the best team at defending the Pick and Roll Man through 4 games, allowing only 4 points per game and a 23.8% FG percentage. This will hamper Huff's scoring upside and then personnel wise, I think Indiana goes with their smaller lineup to match up with the 76ers. Lastly, a large chunk of Huff's rebounds are coming from Above the Break 3s and Corner 3s defensively, but the 76ers are bottom 10 in shot attempts per game in those spots. Fade Huff! 

Don't miss our expert's full 76ers vs Pacers prediction

Parlay: Immanuel Quickly (TOR) 25+ Points + Assists / Ace Bailey (UTA) (+413) 0.25u

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

These are two guys who have had major injuries impact their teams' rotations: For the Raptors, Kawhi Leonard will be out for an extended period of time due to knee swelling and for the Jazz, Jaren Jackson will miss 6-8 weeks with a torn MCL. When I see these types are large injuries, I immediately look for the impact to the other pieces in the rotation and check their on/off stats for the missing player. In both cases, Bailey and Quickley's scoring and usage rates soar with the injured party off the floor. Quickley goes to 43.3 points per 100 possessions with Leonard off the floor this season and plays an Orlando team that is bottom 10 in the league in transition defense. Bailey goes to 29.6 points per 100 possessions with Jackson off the floor and should keep his spot in the starting rotation.

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