Spurs vs Knicks First Basket Prediction & Best Bets for 2026 NBA Finals Game 3

Madison Square Garden is set to host its first NBA Finals game in 27 years as the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks collide for Game 3 on Monday. Being down 2-0 in the series certainly makes life difficult for the young Spurs, as no team in NBA Finals history has come back to win the series after losing the opening 2 games at home. Can San Antonio get back into this series? Action gets underway tonight at 8:30 pm ET on ABC, and I'm targeting the start of that game with my Spurs vs Knicks first basket best bet for Game 3. Let's break it down, while you can also check out our expert's Knicks vs Spurs best bet for Game 3, along with all our NBA picks throughout the 2026 NBA Finals.

Spurs vs Knicks Game 3 first basket best bet: Stephon Castle (+750)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

These young Spurs are facing a massive uphill climb as they try to claw their way back from a 2-0 deficit in the NBA Finals. The atmosphere at Madison Square Garden for Game 3 will be something most of them have never seen in their life, so it'll be crucial for them to stay calm and try to weather the storm somehow in the early going. Winning the opening tip and scoring the first basket would certainly be a confidence booster to start the game.

Each team has won possession once through the first 2 games, but with Victor Wembanyama having a sizeable advantage over KAT, I feel like it'll be Wemby winning the opening tip in most of these games. In the 73 games he's started this season, he's won the opening tip in 90% of them. We went with Wemby to score the first basket in Game 2; however the Spurs had other ideas and went with a Devin Vassell three that cashed at +900 odds. The assist man on that play was Stephon Castle, who is priced at +750 to score the first basket in Game 3. Why not go with Vassell returning the favor and assisting Castle for his own three to start Monday's game?

One of the biggest issues the Spurs have had in this series is that there's no clear-cut secondary scoring option behind Wemby, I think we're due a big Castle game, as he's had one in every single series so far this postseason. The Knicks' issues guarding the perimeter against opposing shooting guards are well documented, as this season 52% of their first baskets allowed came from opposing guards. Castle has scored the first basket 11 times this season, and in percentage points only Victor Wembanyama has scored more. With that in mind, we're getting solid value for Castle to open the scoring tonight at +750 odds.

Now check out our expert's Spurs vs Knicks parlay picks for Game 3 at +457 odds!