Before we get to the Divisional round or Conference series, it’s time for the Wild Card. And looking at this year’s Wild Card schedule, the action should live up to the name. Here’s how it works: eight teams are fighting to move on to the next round in a best-of-3 series that runs from Tuesday to Thursday. Each series will have the same location for all three games, so being the home team is a massive advantage. The four teams that advance will play on Saturday, so it will be a grueling week for the eight teams after a long 162-game season.
Below, you can find the Wild Card matchups with the series winner odds as well as my best bet for each series. I’ve waited six months to say this: it’s time for playoff baseball.
Make sure to check out my MLB World Series preview and best bets
MLB Wild Card Series Odds
Here are the four matchups happening this week, with the odds to win the series provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Rangers (+130) vs Tampa Bay Rays (-155)
Toronto Blue Jays (-105) vs Minnesota Twins (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) vs Milwaukee Brewers (-160)
Miami Marlins (+160) vs Philadelphia Phillies (-190)
To no surprise, all four teams that are at home are favored to win the series. So, does home-field advantage make that big of a difference? Or will the road warriors cause an upset or two? Also, each best bet I made below is from DraftKings Sportsbook.
We’ll have MLB picks for EVERY postseason matchup
MLB Wild Card Series Previews and Best Bets
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
This is the series that I’m most looking forward to. The Rangers nearly secured a bye to the Divisional round by winning the AL West, but some self-destruction in the last few weeks led to Texas playing in the Wild Card against the Rays in Tampa Bay. As for the Rays, they got leapfrogged by the Orioles in the AL East race and are arguably the best Wild Card team. When you win 99 games, you might expect a division title. But nope, the Rays have a 3-game series to determine their fate. For Game 1, the probable starters are Jordan Montgomery for the Rangers and Tyler Glasnow for the Rays. Immediately, I’m drawn to the under because that sounds like a very low-scoring game. However, I also give the edge to the Rangers with Montgomery since the lefty has been fantastic in the last month.
The Rangers have yet to announce a starter for Game 2, but I’m guessing it will be Nathan Eovaldi. That’s not good for the Rangers. Eovaldi has not been the same pitcher since returning from his injury, and his ERA shows it. The right-hander has a 9.30 ERA in those 6 outings, so I don’t love Texas’ chances with him on the bump. He will be facing Zach Eflin, who posted a 3.30 ERA in 18 starts at home in the regular season. Because of that, I’m projecting the Rays to be around -130 favorites on Wednesday night. If the Rays win Game 2, that forces a Game 3 and cashes this bet.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 games (-110)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins
If you like good pitching and low-scoring games, you’ve found the jackpot. For Game 1, the Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman to the mound to counter Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez. The crowd will be rocking, the nerves will be high and the pitching will be excellent. It was no surprise that Gausman was named the Game 1 starter since he posted a 3.16 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 31 starts. Toronto’s ace only got better with time too since he posted a 2.43 ERA and limited hitters to a .189 batting average in 5 starts in September. The recipe to his success has been his split-finger fastball, and that should be on full display on Tuesday night. Since Opening Day, the Minnesota offense ranks 29th against split-fingers.
Looking at Lopez’s Baseball Savant page, it’s hard not to be impressed. He ranks in the 64th percentile or better in every single pitching category. Whether that’s xBA, barrel rate, ground-ball rate or more, Lopez has been exceptional. This will be just his second postseason start of his career, and his only other start was a quality outing in which he allowed just 3 hits and struck out 7 in 5 innings. After Gausman and Lopez, it will likely be Chris Bassitt and Sonny Gray in Game 2. Bassitt is a seasoned veteran with plenty of starts in the spotlight while Gray finished second in the American League ERA race. And even if it goes to a Game 3, it will likely be Jose Berrios and Joe Ryan. All three of those games could easily end with 5 runs or less, so even if this series goes the distance, I could see 15 runs or less being scored.
Best Bet: Under 17.5 series runs (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers
Horrible news came out of Milwaukee on Monday afternoon that Brandon Woodruff would miss the Wild Card round and potentially all of the postseason. That’s a huge loss for the Brewers, who finally got him back at the beginning of August. However, I don’t think his absence will affect the Brewers in the Wild Card. That’s because Corbin Burnes will start Game 1 and Freddy Peralta will likely start Game 2. That’s arguably the best 1-2 punch of any postseason team. Countering Burnes in Game 1 is Brandon Pfaadt, a rookie who has made only 18 starts in his MLB career. Admittedly, he’s not exactly the pitcher I would want in the biggest game of Arizona’s season, but Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are both not rested enough for Tuesday. Because of the pitching mismatch, the Brewers are -180 favorites in Game 1.
Fortunately for the Snakes, they have Gallen scheduled to start on Wednesday. Unfortunately, it won’t be in Arizona. Gallen’s home and away splits are some of the most drastic in the league since he owns a 2.47 ERA in Arizona but a 4.42 ERA on the road. Not just that, but he also posted a 4.17 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 6 starts in September. Countering Arizona’s ace is unconfirmed, but I’m expecting it to be Peralta. The Brewers skipped Peralta’s final start of the regular season to keep him as fresh as possible for the postseason, which means he hasn’t started since September 24. The right-hander has been spectacular since the all-star break with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP along with limiting hitters to a .184 batting average and .196 xBA. Milwaukee’s pitching should carry them to a Wild Card sweep.
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 games (+210)
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Remember the last time the Phillies were in the playoffs via the Wild Card? You shouldn’t need to think too far back since it was last season when the Phillies reached the World Series after sneaking into the postseason from a Wild Card spot. However, Philadelphia’s path to the World Series will be a little more difficult this time. The journey starts at Citizens Bank Park for a 3-game series against their NL East foe, the Miami Marlins. During the regular season, you might be surprised to hear that the Fish won the season series 7-6. However, the Phillies outscored the Marlins 66-55 in those 13 games, and more importantly, the Phillies won’t have to face Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins are dealing with numerous injuries heading into the Wild Card, and they will be without their ace Alcantara, who has been shut down for the rest of the season. They also announced Luis Arraez is dealing with an ankle injury and was seen limping in a walking boot last weekend. Losing a star player is bad, but losing the National League batting champion is even worse.
The Phillies will start Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in Games 1 and 2 of the Wild Card. Philadelphia is hoping they don’t need to go to a Game 3, and I don’t think they will. Wheeler is a different kind of dominant in the postseason and should keep Miami’s offense limited while the Phillies offense gets a few against Jesus Luzardo in Game 1. As for Nola, he can be very frustrating with how inconsistent he is. However, in his Wild Card start last season, he threw 6.2 scoreless innings against the Cardinals. Plus, the Marlins have announced Braxton Garrett as the Game 2 starter, and he allowed 6 runs and 12 hits in 10 innings to the Phillies in the regular season. This series should be over in the minimum amount of games.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 games (-120)
