It is women’s semifinal day at the Australian Open on Thursday. Aryna Sabalenka is already a 2-time champion Down Under, but the other 3 contestants are bidding for their first trophy at this tournament. Sabalenka is going up against Elina Svitolina, while Elena Rybakina faces Jessica Pegula.
I’m on a 7-2 run after going 3-0 on Monday, so let’s keep the momentum going! Here are my best bets on the Day 12 schedule in Melbourne.
Aryna Sabalenka Over 1.5 double-faults vs Elina Svitolina (-138)
Sabalenka has double-faulted 10 times through 5 matches at Melbourne Park. It doesn’t take a math major to calculate an average of 2 per match. What’s worth noting beyond that number is the shortness of Sabalenka’s matches. The 2-time Australian Open champion advanced through the first 5 rounds in straight sets and only 1 contest was competitive (a 2-tiebreaker win over Anastasia Potapova in round 3). That means she is double-faulting twice per match even though she is playing a relatively low number of service games. It would be no surprise if Sabalenka’s match against Svitolina is her toughest of the fortnight to date. After all, Svitolina is absolutely on fire. The 31-year-old Ukrainian is a perfect 10-0 this season and 20-1 in total sets. Her last 2 results are a 6-2, 6-4 victory over Mirra Andreeva and a 6-1, 6-2 upset of Coco Gauff. She is also the best returner that Sabalenka has faced in Melbourne, thus likely to put a lot of pressure on the world #1’s serve. In 6 previous head-to-head encounters, Sabalenka has doubled 23 times – an average of 3.8 per match.
Jessica Pegula Over 11.5 games won vs Elena Rybakina (-115)
This play gives us multiple outlets for success. Any Pegula win, almost any 3-set loss, or even a straight-set loss in 2 tiebreakers gets the job done. The 31-year-old American is a considerable underdog on Thursday, but she has every reason to be competitive if not even win outright. Pegula is in awesome form. She is 8-1 overall this season and has not lost a set through 5 rounds at Melbourne Park. The world #6 is coming off especially impressive wins over defending champ Madison Keys and recent Wimbledon and U.S. Open runner-up Amanda Anisimova. Moreover, this head-to-head series is tied 3-3. On outdoor hard courts, Pegula leads Rybakina 3-1. Only twice in 6 encounters has the Kazakh prevailed in straight sets. As well as Rybakina is playing, nothing indicates that she will advance to the Aussie Open final with ease.
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