It is men’s semifinal day at the Australian Open on Friday. To say that it’s a blockbuster lineup would be a gross understatement. The top 4 seeds have all advanced, so the matchups are #1 Carlos Alcaraz vs #3 Alexander Zverev and #2 Jannik Sinner vs #4 Novak Djokovic.
Let’s take a look at my best bets for the Day 12 schedule in Melbourne.
Alexander Zverev -0.5 double-faults vs. Carlos Alcaraz (+125)
Zverev knows he is the inferior player in this matchup. As a result, he will be willing to take more risks than usual. That means bigger, ramping up the MPHs on first and second deliveries. In turn, that means both more aces and more double-faults. Alcaraz putting pressure on Zverev’s serve would be nothing new. In their 12 head-to-head meetings, the current world #3 has DFed 36 times compared to Alcaraz’s 23. Neither man has been double-faulting much during this Australian Open (14 combined in 10 matches), so there is obviously a decent chance that they tie with zero, 1, or 2 double-faults. Well into plus money, however, there is very good value on Zverev to finish with more doubles.
Alexander Zverev Over 9.5 aces vs Carlos Alcaraz (-110)
Zverev is serving well enough to stay close on Friday. If the German can take it to 4 sets or even make all 3 sets relatively competitive, he should have more than enough time to reach the double-digit mark in aces. And why can’t he? Zverev is 6-6 lifetime against Alcaraz and beat the current world #1 in a tight 4-setter in their previous Aussie Open showdown (2024 quarterfinals). Through 5 rounds at Melbourne Park so far this year, Zverev has cracked 80 aces — that’s 16 per match. As for the head-to-head matchup, the 28-year-old has fired 84 aces in 33 sets against Alcaraz — 2.55 per set. Based on that average, he would exceed the 10 mark in a 4-set match. Keep in mind that 13 of their 33 sets have been played on clay, a surface that makes it much tougher to hit aces given the slowness of the courts. On the hard courts of Melbourne, relatively fast conditions are much more favorable for aces. Moreover, Alcaraz vs Zverev is the afternoon match on Friday. In the heat of the day, balls will be flying.
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Under 21.5 total aces (-120)
First of all, this match is likely to be quick. The quicker it goes, the less time each player has to hit aces. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that out! Sinner is simply the far better player at this point in their respective careers. That is is especially evident their recent H2H. Sinner has won 5 on the trot and 6 of their last 7 contests. He has won 9 sets in a row, too, with just 2 of those going to tiebreakers. Moreover, Djokovic was getting crushed by Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals and was dealing with a foot blister, so he doesn’t inspire any confidence moving forward (Musetti abruptly retired due to a groin injury). Assuming this is a short match, it will be difficult for either man to go over pretty much any of his stat quotas. In 10 head-to-head encounters, both Sinner and Djokovic are averaging a modest 2.63 aces per set. Both players are great returners who know how to get their rackets on serves. Over the past 52 weeks, Sinner is getting aces on 7.7 percent of his return points; Djokovic checks in at 7.5 percent.
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