Second favorite Matteo Berrettini out of Wimbledon as outright odds take a turn

Matteo Berrettini
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Ricky Dimon

Tennis · 1 month ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Matteo Berrettini was the second favorite behind Novak Djokovic to capture the men’s singles title at Wimbledon. Marin Cilic, also a former runner-up at the All-England Club, was among the top-10 favorites. Neither player ended up hitting a single ball.

Berrettini was forced out on Tuesday morning because of a positive Covid-19 test and less than 24 hours earlier Cilic had withdrawn for the same reason. With Hubert Hurkacz — the fifth favorite — having already lost, the Wimbledon outright odds have already had major changes just one day into the fortnight.

Let’s take a look.

Wimbledon odds movement

These were the favorites before the tournament began:

Novak Djokovic -120
Matteo Berrettini +550
Rafael Nadal +800
Carlos Alcaraz +1400
Hubert Hurkacz +1500
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1800
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2500
Nick Kyrgios +3000
Marin Cilic +3500
Andy Murray +8000

Here are the remaining favorites’ current odds:

Novak Djokovic -165
Rafael Nadal +500
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1200
Carlos Alcaraz +1400
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1500
Nick Kyrgios +1500
Andy Murray +2800

As you can see, only Alcaraz’s odds have not improved — and that’s because he did not inspire much confidence in his first-round match by requiring 5 sets to get past Jan-Lennard Struff. Alcaraz is also in the top half of the draw with Djokovic, away from Berrettini and Cilic, so those withdrawals are unlikely to have any impact on his tournament. The exits of Berrettini and Cilic could, however, be good news for Rafael Nadal. As the 36-year-old bids for his third major title of the year, he could have faced Cilic in the round of 16 and Berrettini in the semis.

I have outright plays on both Djokovic and Nadal, so I’m not complaining — at least not from a betting standpoint. From a pure entertaining standpoint, it obviously stinks for the tournament to have both Berrettini and Cilic gone.

What happens to Matteo Berrettini and Marin Cilic bets?

Given that Berrettini and Cilic may have been popular futures plays, there could be a lot of bets refunded this week. That’s not even anything new for Wimbledon 2022, as plenty of futures bets would have come in on Daniil Medvedev, Aryna Sabalenka and perhaps also Andrey Rublev and Victoria Azarenka before Russians and Belarusians were banned from the All-England Club.

You may have wondering what happens if earlier this year you made outright futures bets on since-banned players. Now the question can be asked of Covid-stricken participants. Once the first point of a player’s first match begins, all futures bets are active and will be graded. The Russian and Belarusian players obviously didn’t play a point at Wimbledon. Berrettini and Cilic also never walked on the court. In such instances, how sportsbooks treat those outright futures bets can vary from place to place. DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM are refunding all bets. Barstool counts them as losses.

The bottom line is hopefully you didn’t bet on some of those guys too soon, but even if you did there is still time to get back into the futures market. But do it before the odds shift even more!

The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis Predictions and Picks from top events including the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open.

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