Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Denver showed up big in Game 3, going up 2-1 in the series and are 3.5-point favorites tonight on the road. Miami is 2-1 straight up this postseason in Game 4’s with all 3 residing at home. Murray and Jokic put up all-time performances with both players notching a triple double and rookie Christian Braun was a spark plug off the bench with 15 points.
Miami will need one of the “other guys” to have a big performance tonight if they want to even the series 2-2 before heading back to Denver. Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Kyle Lowry have stepped up throughout the playoffs in various spots, but which one will be the 3rd option tonight behind Bam and Butler.
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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 3PM (+112)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is strictly a value play on my end. Throughout the series his 3P lines were in the -110 range and due to poor performances, we’re finally getting it at plus-money odds. Before this series, this line had a 60% hit rate. However, he’s 0-3 against it so far despite seeing 36 min in 2/3 games. I like KCP to finally break out tonight for one main reason: the Heat have not had any success stopping the Jokic/Murray 2-man game.
In Game 3, we started to see more double teams from Miami; either on Murray or Jokic and the 3rd defender is forced to step up and guard the non-doubled Murray/Jokic. This means there is an open shooter somewhere on the perimeter. In Game 3, Bruce Brown and KCP were 1/6 from 3P in those situations (0/1 in the 2H). I’m expecting the levies to break and Denver finally gets help from their perimeter shooters. At +120, this is the better value of the two, so I’ll make it a 1U play.
Caleb Martin over 13.5 points + rebounds (-113)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
{Insert the Paul Rudd Hot Ones meme} Look at us guys! In Game 1, we faded Caleb Martin at under 23.5 points and rebounds. 3 games later this line has dropped by 10! It’s finally in a spot I feel comfortable playing considering he’s coming off his highest minutes of the series (32) and lead the entire bench in scoring (and minutes). Martin’s minutes boost is a direct result of Cody Zeller finally getting snipped and Spo played him almost the entire 4Q which is a great sign for his role going forward. This has a 66% hit rate all postseason, so I’ll back this with a 1U play.
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Nikola Jokic over 23.5 rebound and assists (-103)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This ties into my theory above about Denver getting better perimeter shooting in Game 4. For starters, the rebounds piece is constant. The Heat have no answer for Jokic in the paint and he’s had double digit rebounds in every game this series. Cody Zeller was almost a complete scratch in Game 3 and it resulted in 21 rebounds on 31 rebound chances. Last game Jokic brought in 10 assists on 13 potential assists despite the Nuggets shooting 28% from 3P range. This line has a 55% hit rate all postseason and a -103 line indicates 52% giving us a slight advantage in the value column.
Same Game Parlay (+1702)
Odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3+ 3PM
- Kyle Lowry 2+ 3PM
- Bam Adebayo 4+ Assists
A $25 wager pays out $425.50!
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