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Monday presents us with a 10-game MLB slate starting earlier than usual. The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Washington to take on the Nationals at 4:05 pm ET. Aces Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes also take the mound this evening, but we’re eyeing up Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros as our top MLB player prop bet of the day. Along with my best MLB player prop pick, don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Hunter Brown (HOU) under 5.5 hits allowed (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Hunter Brown has the pleasure of welcoming the New York Mets into town on Monday. The Mets, currently fourth in the NL East, are a mess — and that’s putting it kindly. In June alone, they have the 10th-highest strikeout rate to RHP and more importantly, are hitting .216 against RHP which ranks in the bottom five in all of baseball. They were blessed to face off against Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright this weekend, but Brown is pitching lightyears ahead of those two.
After a rookie season that ended with a ring, Brown is pitching at his best. He’s allowed less than 6 hits in 4 of his last 5 games, including a 7-inning shutout of the Nationals in his last start. The knock on Brown has been his walks. He’s issued at least 2 walks in 8 of 13 starts and 8 combined walks in his last 3 starts. The good news for prop bettors in this market is that this doesn’t affect us.
The bullpen is gassed for Houston, but Brown may struggle to go more than 6 innings with his walks. The Mets rank in the top 10 in baseball in BB% against RHP and have disciplined hitters like Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor, who all have a BB% above 10% against RHP.
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