MLB Parlays

Shane Baz has long been considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and the young Tampa Bay right-hander’s debut showed baseball fans that the future has now become the present. Baz outdueled Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray, giving up just 2 hits over 5 innings for the win. While both of those hits did leave the ballpark, it was an incredibly positive outing for Baz, who appears to immediately figure in the team’s plans for the postseason, and shouldn’t expect any demotions again provided he pitches to the level he’s capable of.

The Athletics had high hopes for Jesus Luzardo, but the young lefty just never materialized in Oakland. The Marlins hoped that a trade back home to South Florida would allow the electric but erratic pitcher to calm down and pitch better, but Luzardo has been even worse since joining the team. Through 10 starts, he’s pitched to a 7.13 ERA, walking 30 hitters in 48 innings. The Marlins’ offense shouldn’t count on scoring much against Baz and the Tampa Bay bullpen, while the Rays should get to Luzardo early. Take Tampa Bay on the run line -1.5.

The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins will conclude their 4-game series at Target Field on Sunday.  Alek Manoah will take the mound for Toronto.  He is posting an impressive 3.36 ERA through 99.0 innings in his rookie campaign.  The Blue Jays also tend to win games when he pitches.  Toronto is 14-4 in Manoah’s 18 starts on the year, and they have won each of his last 6 outings.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs over his last 3 outings (19.2 innings), and he seems to have a favorable matchup in this one.  The rookie right-hander will face a Minnesota offense that has struggled to generate runs on a consistent basis this season.

Another rookie, Griffin Jax, will toe the rubber for the Twins.  He has not been as successful as Manoah in his rookie season.  Jax is posting a 6.67 ERA so far in September, and opponents are hitting a strong .264 against him on the year.  Toronto has one of the most daunting lineups in baseball, and they can strike at any moment.  They are still fighting for a spot in the postseason, so look for the Toronto bats to be ready to roll.  Manoah should hold it down on the mound.  Back the Blue Jays -1.5.

New York took the series opener on Friday night, closing the gap on the Red Sox for the top AL Wild Card spot. SS/2B Gleyber Torres homered in the win and is riding a 10 game hitting streak into Saturday action. Consistent hitting has been a challenge for the Yankees all season long so getting more players in on the action is key. Two years ago he was looking like a star and he is one of several Yankees who has hit 30+ homers in the past. Their lineup is so deep, the challenge has been getting more than one guy going at a time.

Boston is in a good spot but losses to the Yankees are more than just losing to your rival at this point in the season. They saw their 7 game winning streak come to a close on Friday night and that had to sting at home. Starting pitching has hurt them all season long, they are just 26th in the Majors in quality starts. When they don’t get one it puts a ton of pressure on their hitters. The offense is good but these are pressure-packed games right now

A couple of lefties are taking the mound on Sunday Night Baseball. For the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery has been very steady this season. This will be his fifth start of the year against Boston. The team is 1-3 in his starters but he has pitched well enough to win in all of those contests. For Boston. Eduardo Rodriguez has good strikeout numbers and a winning record but his ERA is the highest it has been in his career. The Yankees have hit him this season but they haven’t seen him since July.

These are two good teams and the pricing of the games in the series is going to influence which way to play it. On Friday it was all about getting Gerrit Cole and the Yankees at a price too good to ignore. I think the same thing is happening on Sunday. I make this game a pick’em but that is not how the books see it. Getting the Yankees on the plus side is a great bet to make on Sunday night. These teams are way too even in this matchup to pay a premium.

Take New York.

Getting the Indians as this large of a home ‘dog here has value. Promising youngster Triston McKenzie will start for Cleveland here. He’s coming off a rough start, but prior to that had been on a dominant run. In his previous five starts, he had given up only four total runs. The Indians won 6-0 on Saturday, and the White Sox have only scored one run across their past two games. It appears they’re coasting after clinching the AL Central, and it’s hard to blame them because they’re almost certainly locked into their playoff seeding. They don’t really have much to play for here on the road. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has been laboring through some short starts recently, and I wouldn’t expect him to be his sharpest in this one.

The Angels had an outburst on Saturday with a huge 14-1 win, and they should be able to follow it up. Especially with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani has been a sensation all year, and he’ll want to put on a show for the home fans in the team’s final home game of the year. As a matter of fact the whole team will, and I think we’ll see their best effort for the home finale of what has been another disappointing season. The Mariners’ playoff chances became very slim with recent wins from the Blue Jays and Yankees, so they should be a bit demoralized. ESPN now gives them only a 2.2 percent chance of making the postseason, so they’re pretty much eliminated. Seattle starter Marco Gonzales has been mediocre all season.

To wrap this mega parlay up and hopefully bring us home, we’ve got the Astros. Houston can clinch the AL West on Sunday, so they’ve got plenty to play for here. As opposed to the Athletics, who are just playing out the string. Jake Odorizzi will start for Houston here after a brief stint on the IL. In his last four starts before hurting his foot, he had given up only six total runs. But this play has more to do with Oakland starter Paul Blackburn, who has struggled in 2021 and in prior big league stints. In 28 career major league appearances and 25 starts, Blackburn has an ERA of 5.56. His last three starts have come against the Mariners, Royals, and Rangers. In those three outings, he gave up 22 baserunners in only 11 and 2/3 innings. Now he has to face arguably the best lineup in the league.

Houston has built up enough of a cushion in the AL West that they might clinch the division this weekend if they play well. They have the top offense in the Majors thanks to one of the deepest lineups in the game. OF Yordan Alvarez is leading the team in homers but he might be resting this weekend as he deals with an injury. There is no reason to push him with the playoffs around the corner, especially with this team loaded with offense. While Houston is secure, Oakland’s playoff chances are not looking very good right now. Things might have been different but they were swept at home by Seattle to start the week. At this point, they are both far back and have too many teams to climb over to make it. They just have to take it one game at a time. The offense fell apart against the Mariners, they only scored 10 runs over the 4 games. That has to pick up over the weekend. 

After a couple of bad starts to start September Houston lefty Framber Valdez was great in his last outing, pitching 7 shutout innings against the Angels. It was on the road too. Valdez has been sneaky good for the Astros this season but he is also setting new innings highs with every game, so there is some fatigue risk. Sean Manaea is the most experienced starter the A’s have but he has not been able to help them snap out of their recent struggles. The A’s are just 2-5 in his last 7 starts and he has pitched only 5 innings in each of his last 2. They really need a command performance from him. Right now this one is lined even, and that creates a great opportunity for the visitors. Oakland might not have much left in the tank and Manaea may not be a difference-maker on the mound. With no premium on Houston, they are the team to back. Take Houston.

Friday night’s pitchers’ duel didn’t turn out as expected as the offenses were the main story of the game. The Yankees jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead after three innings and they never looked back as they won 8-3 and gained some ground in the AL wild-card race since Toronto and Boston lost. New York’s outburst for 8 runs is the 3rd time in the last 3 games that they have scored at least 7 runs and it can be attributed to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres all swinging hot bats. They will have reliever-turned-starter Nestor Cortes on the mound, who has been spectacular in the starting rotation with a 2.94 ERA and a .218 opponent batting average. With how hot the Yankees offense is right now, Cortes starting is just an added bonus for New York backers. 

Nick Pivetta could be the definition of inconsistency. Pivetta comes into this matchup with a 4.63 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 144 innings this season, but it has been a rollercoaster of starts for the 28-year-old. He has thrown 6 shutouts this season to go with 11 starts of allowing 4 runs or more. None of the shutouts has come against New York. The Yankees’ lineup has seen Pivetta really well as they have a .308 batting average with a .410 wOBA in 50 plate appearances. His offense seemed to have found some magic in their bright yellow uniforms, but they might have run out of luck and don’t seem in position to win this game. Take the Yankees by the money line at a great price.

Sometimes, in late September games between teams that have already been eliminated from the playoffs, you just have to ask yourself whether it’s worth it to have faith in the devil you know. Tarik Skubal has been a part of the Tigers’ rotation since the beginning of the season and has done perfectly fine, nothing more or less. His 4.25 ERA is as good a number as his team could have anticipated, but it’s also one they know very well could be his ceiling. Skubal has gone just 3 innings in each of his 3 September starts, and unless he gets through Kansas City’s lineup quickly and easily the first time through the order, the Tigers are unlikely to have him go much further.

So now for the unknown. Kansas City will give the ball to 24-year-old Jon Heasley, a 13th-round draft pick who had never made it above A-ball before this season (and even this year pitched only at Double-A before his call-up a week ago). Heasley made his debut against the Mariners, giving up 4 runs in as many innings and taking the loss. But he did go 7-3 with a 3.33 ERA in the minors this year, and now that the jitters of his debut are behind him, it’s entirely possible that he can settle in and put together a better outing. This is the time of year to take chances on undervalued underdog pitchers, so go with Kansas City on Saturday.

To start this mega parlay off, we’ve got the Phillies on the run line. Philly is in a tight battle for the NL East crown, and they’re playing well down the stretch. They’ve won eight of their last 10 games overall, and have scored 20 runs across the first two games of this series. That kind of offensive production should be plenty for Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. In 90 innings this year, Suarez has an ERA of 1.60. Across his last six starts, he’s only given up seven total runs. Now he gets to face a Pirates lineup that ranks 29th in OPS. Pittsburgh is just playing out the string, looking to wrap up another pitiful season. I wouldn’t expect a sudden last stand here with Wil Crowe on the mound. In 23 starts this year, Crowe has an ERA of 5.77. On the road his ERA balloons out to 6.53. Philadelphia will roll once again in this series.

Getting the Marlins as this big of an underdog with Sandy Alcantara on the mound is just too good to pass up. I’m taking them -1.5 at a whopping +300. Alcantara had already been having a great year overall, but he’s been downright dominant lately. Across his last three starts, he’s given up only two earned runs in 23 innings. Twice in those three starts he went at least eight innings. In his one start against the Rays this year, Alcantara gave up only two hits and no runs in six innings. The Rays are just 7-8 in their last 15, so there’s no way I could lay such a steep price with them. Especially not when they’re starting rookie Shane McClanahan. McClanahan is unproven, and I don’t think he’s pitched as well as his 3.51 ERA might have you think. His 1.27 WHIP shows that. Getting 3/1 truly turns this into a mega parlay.

To close out this mega parlay and hopefully bring us home, we’ve got the Tigers -1.5. I might sound like a broken record at this point, but Detroit is getting slept on. Sure they lost the first game of this series, but right before this series started they’d won seven of their last nine games. The Royals have a weak lineup, and will send Jon Heasley out for his second career start here. Heasley has all of four innings of big league experience under his belt, and is now being asked to pitch on the road for the first time right at the end of the year. It’s not a recipe for a ton of success. The Tigers haven’t been letting Tarik Skubal pitch very well recently, but he was really good in August.