Best MLB player prop bet today 7/31: Twins can rattle Sean Manaea
Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 147 wins and 102 losses for a gain of +36.12 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Sunday.
It has been a historic week for myself. Personally, on posted Twitter plays, we are at a 12-bet win streak and up over 15 units since last Saturday. All eyes will be on Manaea to continue our streak!
Sean Manaea (SDP) under 5.5 Ks (-144)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Sean Manaea has not lived to expectations in his first season with the San Diego Padres. Last season with the Oakland Athletics, Manaea had a K rate of upwards of 26% and his BB rate sat at 5.4%. Fast forward to this season and his K rate has dropped to 23.7% and he is walking more than 2 batters per start.
His home and away splits are alarming as well. Manaea is one of the few pitchers in today’s game who struggles more at home compared to on the road. His ERA is upwards of 4.5 and is averaging .86 strikeouts per inning. In comparison, he averages 1.1 strikeouts per inning away from Petco Park.
Today, he’ll face off against the AL Central leading Minnesota Twins. This is a tough matchup for Manaea. The Twins are striking out at the second-lowest rate versus left-handed pitching this month. Only 3 of 11 left-handed starting pitchers have struck out at least 6 Twins since June. That included Blake Snell on Friday night. He pitched well and struck out his last 2 batters of the game to eclipse the total.
Manaea has gone under this line in 4 straight starts and in 5 of 8 starts at home. I expect the Twins to get to Manaea early and put the ball in play all game long.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres