Best MLB player prop bet today 9/28: Aaron Nola saves the Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park.
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 212 wins and 151 losses for a gain of +38.67 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Wednesday.

Lock in our MLB picks for each of today’s 15 games

Aaron Nola (PHI) over 18.5 outs (+120)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The Philadelphia Phillies are desperate for a win. They lead the Milwaukee Brewers by a game and a half for the 6th and final playoff spot in the National League. The Phillies have dropped 3 in a row and 7 of their last 10. Thankfully for them, they have their ace on the mound, Aaron Nola.

Nola and the Phillies will be in Chicago tonight and face off against the 68-86 Cubs. Fellow ace Zack Wheeler pitched 6 innings of 1-run baseball last night in a shortened stint since it was only his 2nd game off injury. The Phillies used 6 bullpen arms on Sunday against the Atlanta Braves but had an off day on Monday to keep the bullpen relatively fresh. The last thing Phillies manager Rob Thompson wants is to go to his pen early in this one. They have the 6th-highest bullpen ERA in the National League, and it has been their kryptonite over the last few seasons.

Nola has been lights out in September. He has a 2.08 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .213. He’s surpassed this line in 9 of 14 games on the road and 8 of his last 10.

The Cubs are hitting .225 against right-handed pitching in September and have a bottom-5 slugging percentage. Nola will have a long leash tonight in a must-win game and one of the most important games in recent team history.

Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs predictions

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