Best MLB player prop bets for today, 4/7: Saturday Crochet

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Javan Shouey


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Jake Irvin stayed under his strikeout total for us for the 2nd straight week, but Garrett Whitlock’s command lacked, leaving yesterday’s article 1-1. There is a play this morning that is catching my eye in the White Sox and Royals game, however, so let’s dive in and get back into the win column!

Garrett Crochet (CWS) o5.5 strikeouts (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.

I was among the masses who laughed at the White Sox for naming converted reliever Garrett Crochet their opening day starter following the trade of former ace Dylan Cease, but they are the ones currently laughing. Talent has never been a concern for Crochet, the former 11th overall pick in the 2020 draft, but he has been used out of the bullpen until this season, making his first 72 MLB appearances in relief. From the left side Crochet hurls elite velocity, and the combination of his funky wind-up and pitch tunneling creates deception for hitters. His 4-seam fastball has averaged 97 MPH through 2 outings, and so far this season he has focused on utilizing that pitch up and in which has made it extremely effective. That pitch and his slider have both generated a 33.3% whiff rate so far this year, and his slider is truly wicked. To adjust to his new role Crochet added a cutter in the offseason, and that offering is inducing a 28.6% whiff rate so far. He is throwing that pitch to both handedness of hitter and he struck out 3 Braves with that pitch alone in his last start.

Through 2 outings Crochet has reached 87 and 93 pitches while facing 23 and 25 batters respectively. He debuted against the Tigers on opening day with 6 innings of 1-run ball, issuing 0 walks and striking out 8 batters in his first career start. He followed up that outing with an even better start against the lethal Braves offense, racking up 8 more strikeouts while spanning 7 innings of 1-run ball. Personally, I was not expecting him to be this efficient, handle this heavy workload at the beginning of the year, or produce these results, but the underlying numbers suggest he could just be very good as a starter. 

For a converted reliever his control has been fantastic, generating first pitch strikes a remarkable 79.2% of the time and issuing only 1 walk through 13 IP. In spring training Crochet only allowed 1 walk in 12.2 IP. His swinging strike rate through 2 starts sits at 13.9% while his CSW% is an elite 32.2%, the 9th highest mark among starting pitchers. He is winning both in the zone and outside with chases, and now gets a lineup that has a very small history against him with just 5 combined PA. Kansas City has faced just one left-handed starter so far in Cole Irvin, making their season-long sample against southpaws rather useless for a reference point. The Royals have Monday off so we may not see a big bat sit, but they may opt to give someone 2 days of early season rest. The bottom of the order will likely feature high-strikeout platoon bats as well, and with Crochet being built up he could possibly see them a third time.

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