Best MLB player prop bets today 5/18: Luis Garcia can’t find the zone
Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write my plays up for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season is listed in my bio. On the year, I recorded 150 wins and 107 losses for a gain of +31 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Wednesday.
Jordan Lyles (BAL) over 5.5 hits allowed (-118)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jordan Lyles faces off against the power-hitting New York Yankees, with whom he is awfully familiar. Lyles has already faced the Yankees twice this season and has allowed 13 hits in 10.0 innings pitched. Usually when a pitcher faces off against a team 3 times in one season, it does not go well for him. Batters start seeing the ball come out of his hand better and by the time the order comes around for the 2nd time, it gets ugly.
This is such a unique market to bet. Last night, Spenser Watkins allowed 4 hits but walked 3 batters as well. As we take a look at the other right-handed starters to face off against the Yankees, they’re walking a ton of Yankees batters. Lyles usually does not have a command issue so we should see a lot of early counts resulting in base hits.
Lyles has allowed over 6 hits in 6 of his 7 starts including both starts versus the Yankees. Watkins only lasting 4.0 innings last night could result in Lyles pitching deep into this game.
Be sure to check out our full game for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees
Luis Garcia (HOU) under 16.5 outs (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
There is no debate that Luis Garcia has elite stuff. He’s mowing hitters down with his fastball and cutter. The Houston Astros have won 5 of his 6 starts this season in big part of Garcia’s 2.94 ERA. But, that changes tonight against the Red Sox’s in Boston.
Garcia is a strikeout machine. He gets hitters into long counts and finds unique ways to produce outs. With those long counts, Garcia tends to throw a tons of pitches in those innings. In his last start he threw 5.0 scoreless innings and struck out 9 batters. He got himself out of jams and threw 95 pitches in a quality start for the Houston Astros. I see a similar game script happening tonight at Fenway. Even though the Red Sox rank bottom in the majors in pitches per at bat, they are hitting .272 against right-handed pitching in the month of May.
I have Garcia slatted at 5.0 innings tonight and struggling to work himself out of jams.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
Josiah Gray (WSH) over 4.5 hits allowed (-130)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
What a cash we had on this exact play on Friday night! Gray ended up allowing 5 hits in the first 6 batters he faced against the Houston Astros. Gray did end up finding his groove on his way to pitching 6.0 innings and allowing only 1 hit after that 1st-inning debacle. Do I think he carries that success over into Miami? No.
The Miami Marlins are another team that is hitting right-handed pitching extremely well in the month of May. They have upped their average to .269 and have recorded at least 5 hits in their last 5 starts to right-handed starters. That includes 5 hits against NL CY Young candidate Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruf and Merrill Kelly.
Gray faced this Marlins team back in April and to no surprise was hit hard. He allowed 7 hits, and 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched.
Washington tends to let its young pitcher get out of jams and find his way out of innings. That bodes well for us tonight!
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals