Best MLB player prop bets today 7/7: Justin Verlander makes his case for Cy Young

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
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JutPicks

MLB · 1 month ago

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NBA and MLB props specialist for Pickswise.

Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 112 wins and 88’losses for a gain of +17.76 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Thursday.

San Francisco Giants under 1.5 runs in first 5 innings (-130)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The Giants are going to have their hands full tonight. They’ll be battling against NL All-Star pitcher Joe Musgrove. The Giants have been atrocious against right-handed pitching and it doesn’t get any easier without Evan Longoria in the lineup. They’re hitting .216 and have an on-base percentage of .306 since June — both rank in the bottom half of the majors.

Musgrove has been sensational this season. His ERA has climbed up to 2.25 after 2 shaky starts but that still ranks in the top 10 in the majors for qualified pitchers.

The most important statistic is that Musgrove has held his opponents under 2 runs in the 1st 5 innings in 10 of his 13 starts. The Giants in particular have failed to score 2 runs in the first 5 innings against right-handed pitching in 7 of their last 10 games. Musgrove should have no problem getting out to a fast start against this projected Giants lineup.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for  San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres 

Justin Verlander (HOU) over 20.5 outs (-129)

Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Justin Verlander is a workhorse. He’s returned this season with vengeance and is eyeing up his 3rd Cy Young award. Today, his opponent with be the 30-50 Kansas City Royals.

There are a ton of different angles to back Verlander today. You could take his strikeouts, earned runs or even hits allowed props. I have chosen to take his outs prop primarily because the Royals swing early and often. They average only 3.79 pitches per at bat, the 2nd-fewest in the majors. They also don’t strike out a lot versus right-handed pitching. Since June 1, their K rate has dropped to 21.5%.

Fellow starting pitcher Christian Javier struggled last night and went only 5 innings. Look for Verlander to make quick work of the Royals lineup, especially towards the bottom where there’s a ton of inexperience.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals 

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