Best MLB player prop bets today 9/20: Mike Clevinger can't contain the Cardinals
Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 203 wins and 146 losses for a gain of +37.52 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Tuesday.
Get our MLB picks for all 16 games today!
Ross Stripling (TOR) over 15.5 outs (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Ross Stripling has been exceptional as a starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. He was used as a bullpen arm to start the season but made the jump to full-time starter in June. Stripling has a 2.94 ERA and has already dominated his opponent tonight in the Philadelphia Phillies. In July, Stripling pitched 7 innings of shutout baseball against the Phillies. They were missing core pieces in Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, but this line is 2 outs too low.
Stripling has pitched 6 complete innings in 6 straight games and that is with a low pitch count. The Jays tend to pull him around 82-87 pitches and that should not be a problem with the Phillies who rank in the top 10 in groundball rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
A half unit for Stripling to record a win at +170 on DraftKings is a bet that I personally be playing as well. Kyle Gibson has been shaky all season long and should struggle against a Blue Jays team thats hitting .260 against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions
Mike Clevinger (SD) over 4.5 hits allowed (-141)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Mike Clevinger has not been what the Padres expected when they acquired him from the Cleveland Guardians in 2020. He has an ERA of 4.47 and is allowing .89 hits per inning pitched this season. He’s failed to produce a productive start since August, and it doesn’t get easier tonight against the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing series in terms of bat production against the Cincinnati Reds. They failed to score 1 run on the three right-handed starters the Reds put out in 12 innings. Nonetheless, they’re still a lethal team against right-handed pitching. They rank in the top 10 in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging.
Clevinger has struggled mightily since the all-star break. In his last 10 games, he’s allowed at least 5 hits in 7 of them. He’s coming off a game against the Seattle Mariners where he allowed 7 hits, of which 4 came in the 1st inning. I have Clevinger projected at 5 innings pitched with 6 hits allowed.
Be sure to check out our San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions