Best MLB player prop bets today 9/30: Joe Ryan and Sandy Alcantara end the year with a bang

Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 244 wins and 153 losses for a gain of +39.38 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Friday.

Lock in our MLB picks for each of today’s 16 games

Joe Ryan (MIN) under 4.5 hits allowed (-123)

Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Joe Ryan is going to be one of the more exciting pitchers in baseball next season. His unique mustache paired with his elite pitching has turned him into must-watch television. The Minnesota Twins have nothing to play for today. They are 9 games out of the 6th and final Wild Card spot in the American League and have no reason to push their star-studded 24-year-old ace. With that being said, Ryan has a phenomenal matchup against the hopeless Detroit Tigers.

Ryan has faced off against the Tigers three times this season. In 17.2 innings pitched, he’s allowed two earned runs and eight hits. That’s absolute dominance. Ryan finds himself on the road tonight where he has had his struggles. He’s allowing at least 5 hits per start on the road but in his last two, he’s allowed 6 combined in 11 innings pitched.

The hits allowed market is special. Ryan tends to strikeout or walk a ton of batters. This will drive up his pitch count and even with a non-quality start, Ryan can still cash this prop. He has stayed under this total in 4 straight starts, all while allowing 7 earned runs.

Ryan threw only 69 pitches in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels, and I could see a similar outcome tonight in a meaningless game against a division rival.

Be sure to check out our full Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers predictions

Milwaukee Brewers under 1.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-115)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

We get a pitchers’ duel in Milwaukee tonight. Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers will host perennial NL CY Young award winner Sandy Alcantara and the Miami Marlins. Alcantara has taken a small step back this month with division rivals Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies putting up 9 earned runs in his first two starts in September. He’s bounced back in a big way with four earned runs in his last three starts, including only two through the first five innings. We only need Alcantara to be magical through five tonight, and he has been stellar in that category.

This is a must-win game for the Brewers. They trail the Phillies by half a game for the final NL Wild Card spot. Alcantara and company are looking to play spoiler. The Brewers’ offense has been stagnant against right-handed pitching in September. They’re hitting .232 and have an on-base percentage of .307, both rank in the bottom half of the majors.

Alcantara will look to put a bow in his 2022 NL CY Young season and finish it off with another dazzling performance. Alcantara has held his opponents to under two runs in the first five innings in three straight and seven of his last ten starts.

Be sure to check out our Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers predictions

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