Best NBA parlay picks today, Friday 11/3: 3-leg parlay at mega +881 odds: High total expected in Mavericks-Nuggets

Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email

The 2023-24 NBA season is off to a terrific start, with high-profile primetime matchups galore and exciting upsets across the league. The in-season tournament begins on Friday and the action features a number of compelling matchups, including Mavericks vs Nuggets, Warriors vs Thunder and more!

A massive slate of NBA hoops to kick off the inaugural in-season tournament definitely calls for an NBA mega parlay. Below are my plays for Friday, and also be sure to check out all of our NBA picks for tonight’s in-season tournament games.

Mavericks vs Nuggets over 226.5 (-110)

Thunder ML (+176)

Grizzlies ML (-116)

NBA parlay odds: +881 

For this parlay, we are going with an underdog on the money line, a favorite on the money line and a game total pick. Let’s break down each of the legs.

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets over 226.5 (-110) 

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the entire tournament, and we’re getting it on the first night. The Denver Nuggets look every bit like the defending world champions thus far, with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and the rest of the squad playing at a very high level. Denver is averaging 109 points per game through its first 5 games and that includes an outlier performance at Minnesota, where Jokic and company managed just 89 points in their only loss of the season.

They should have no trouble scoring against a putrid Mavericks defense that has allowed an average of 114 points per game this season, including games against Memphis and Chicago (hardly championship-caliber offenses). Conversely, the Mavs offense is a well-oiled machine at the moment and Luka Doncic has been virtually impossible to stop. I’ll keep playing Dallas overs until the books adjust.

Read our Mavericks vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay

Oklahoma City Thunder ML over Golden State Warriors (+176) 

Oklahoma City looks primed to be a playoff contender, even in a very deep Western Conference. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is already one of the brightest young stars in the game, and now they’re working last year’s top pick Chet Holmgren into the mix to really positive results thus far. Holmgren has already been impactful in the first few Thunder games this season, and I see him having great success against a Warriors front line that is much more undersized compared to a few other teams Oklahoma City has faced to this point (Cavs, Nuggets, Pistons).

On the other side, while Golden State is undeniably very comfortable in this role, the Warriors are far from a finished product offensively in the early stages of the season. Chris Paul has already made a discernible impact, but most of the tertiary pieces around Steph Curry have struggled to score when Curry is off the court. It just so happens that Oklahoma City is a young team with multiple versatile wing defenders who can make life hard on opposing ball handlers, which is something the Dubs haven’t faced yet this season. Look for SGA to bounce back after a poor outing against New Orleans and for the Thunder to pull the outright upset on the road behind their shotmaking and perimeter defense.

Check out our Knicks vs Bucks Same Game Parlay for tonight

Memphis Grizzlies ML over Portland Trail Blazers (-116)

To round out our mega parlay, I’m going to hold my nose and try to catch the falling knife with the Memphis Grizzlies. Yes, the Grizzlies are struggling mightily and look lost on offense without Ja Morant. However, we can’t look past Memphis’ early-season schedule, which included games against the Nuggets, Mavericks, Pelicans and a trip to Utah. The Grizzlies were favored in a couple of those games and now we’re getting them at close to a pick ’em against Portland? That seems like an overreaction to me.

Remember, this Blazers team can’t shoot 3-pointers with any sort of efficiency and they don’t have a dominant big man inside to cause Memphis’ backup bigs problems (I don’t consider DeAndre Ayton to be dominant). Let’s buy Memphis at its lowest point in the market against what I believe to be the clear worst team in the Western Conference.

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