Best NBA player prop bets for today, 12/10: Jusuf Nurkic pounds the paint

Dec 8, 2022; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic (27) scores a basket during the first half against Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


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NBA Saturday is upon us. We have a fairly big slate of 8 games and a few key matchups. Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors is the marquee game of the night with Mavericks vs Bulls just underneath that as Luka Doncic is on a back-to-back. We’ve been successful so far in December so let’s keep that rolling tonight.

Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers) over 12.5 points (-102)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Jusuf Nurkic was playing efficient basketball before Dame Lillard returned from injury on Thursday night and then it got ramped up a notch. Nurkic went 9-of-10 from the field and 2-of-3 from deep and finished with 21 points. The Bosnian Beast is averaging 17 ppg at home and 18.3 ppg over 3 games in December. He has been improving his field-goal percentage month over month this season, and is sitting at 64% in December.

The Timberwolves pose an interesting matchup. While the first thought is that 3-time DPOY Rudy Gobert should stifle him in the post, that hasn’t necessarily been the case for Minnesota of late. They are allowing 62 ppg in the paint over the last 3 games, which is 3rd-worst in that span, and 56 ppg in the paint on the road this season (4th-worst). I like the Trail Blazers to start the game inside in an effort to get Gobert into foul trouble and open up wide looks on the perimeter. 1U.

Paul George (LAC) over 4.5 assists (-135)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

I hate the juice, but I love the play. Reggie Jackson is out with rest and George has been on fire of late in the assist column. 7,5,7 over the last 3 since returning from injury and Kawhi Leonard is playing tonight. The Wizards defensively have completely regressed from the beginning of the season. They’ve fallen to 24th in aDRTG and 29th in e3P%. Over the last 3, they’re allowing 28.7 assists per game to the opposing team and Paul George has 36.7% assist percentage since returning. The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal, Will Barton, and Rui Hachimura while the Clippers NEED to win this game after a few recent ugly losses. If you’re feeling froggy, you can pivot to Paul George 6+ Assists + LAC Win +220 on FD., I think it provides a lot of great value. Otherwise, 1U from me.

Myles Turner (IND) over 17.5 points (+100)

Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

More than half of the Brooklyn Nets are out tonight. That’s not hyperbole. They’re missing Durant, Kyrie, Claxton, Simmons, Curry, Harris, O’Neale, and TJ Warren. I don’t actually know who they could be fielding as a squad outside of Patty Mills, Cam Thomas, and Markieff Morris. It’s the perfect opportunity for Myles Turner to take advantage of a weak, inexperienced front court at home. Speaking of home, he’s averaging 20.4PPG in Indiana and 19.8 PPG for the month of December. Against Brooklyn in late November, Turner had an extremely efficient 23 points on 9/11 shooting from the field. Turner to drop 20+ is an enticing +150, but let’s stick to the original line of 17.5 for 1U.

Malcolm Brogdon (BOS) over 3.5 assists (-135)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

They’re going to change my nickname to “Tums” for all the chalk I’m giving out, but I’d rather be right for a few extra cents on the vig. Brogdon is the perfect candidate on Boston to step up in this matchup against the Warriors tonight. He’s hit this specific line in 7 of the last 10 games and averaging 9 potential assists per game since the beginning of December. The Warriors smaller lineup should get Brogdon additional minutes tonight, more than his standard with the second team and his defensive presence will be needed for the guard heavy Warriors. Golden State being number 1 overall in PACE should add additional opportunities. Sprinkle in the fact the GS is 17th overall in AST %(percent of opp field goal attempts that were assisted) and you have a prime spot for Brogdon to hit this line. Another 1U, but if you can find alternate line, I would play up to 4.5.

Degenerate Parlay +5326

  • Paul George 6+ Ast + LAC Win (+220)
  • Myles Turner 20+ P (+150)
  • Malcolm Brogdon O4.5 Assists (+144)
  • Jusuf Nurkic 15+ Pts + POR Win (+178)
$5 pays $266

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